ECS Under Contract for Office of Science and Technology, NOAA Fisheries, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America.
Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2023 Sep 20;18(9):e0290643. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290643. eCollection 2023.
Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.
气候变化和气候变率正在影响海洋哺乳动物物种，预计这些影响将在未来几十年持续下去。脆弱性评估为使用现有信息评估广泛物种的气候影响提供了一个框架。我们使用专家 elicitation 对北大西洋西部、墨西哥湾和加勒比海的 108 个海洋哺乳动物种群和种群进行了基于特征的气候脆弱性评估。我们的方法结合了海洋哺乳动物种群对环境条件变化的暴露（预测变化）和敏感性（耐受和适应变化条件的能力），以估计对气候变化的脆弱性，并使用脆弱性指数对种群进行分类。这些种群中有 44%（n = 47）的脆弱性得分非常高，29%（n = 31）的得分高，20%（n = 22）的得分中等，7%（n = 8）的得分低。大多数种群（n = 78；72%）的脆弱性得分非常高，而 24%（n = 26）的得分高，4%（n = 4）的得分中等。这些种群中有 33%（n = 36）的敏感性得分非常高，18%（n = 19）的得分高，34%（n = 37）的得分中等，15%（n = 16）的得分低。脆弱性结果总结了五个分类群的种群：鳍足类（n = 4；25%高，75%中）、须鲸类（n = 7；29%非常高，57%高，14%中）、喙鲸类（n = 8；13%非常高，50%高，38%中）、海豚类（n = 84；52%非常高，23%高，15%中，10%低）和其他齿鲸类（n = 5；60%高，40%中）。温度、海洋 pH 值和溶解氧等因素是高气候暴露的主要驱动因素，其影响通过猎物和栖息地参数来调节。我们通过 bootstrap 脆弱性评分、对个别属性和个别评分者进行 leave-one-out 分析以及对每个属性的评分数据质量进行量化来量化不确定性的来源。这些结果为研究人员、管理者和公众提供了有关海洋哺乳动物对气候变化的反应的信息，以加强制定更有效的海洋哺乳动物管理、恢复和保护活动，应对当前和未来由于气候变化而导致的环境变化和生物反应。
