Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Nature. 2024 Mar;627(8005):797-804. doi: 10.1038/s41586-024-07147-z. Epub 2024 Mar 13.
Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves, raising concerns about the future impacts of climate change and the associated socioeconomic costs. Here we develop a disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological and hybrid input-output and computable general equilibrium global trade models to estimate the midcentury socioeconomic impacts of heat stress. We consider health costs related to heat exposure, the value of heat-induced labour productivity loss and indirect losses due to economic disruptions cascading through supply chains. Here we show that the global annual incremental gross domestic product loss increases exponentially from 0.03 ± 0.01 (SSP 245)-0.05 ± 0.03 (SSP 585) percentage points during 2030-2040 to 0.05 ± 0.01-0.15 ± 0.04 percentage points during 2050-2060. By 2060, the expected global economic losses reach a total of 0.6-4.6% with losses attributed to health loss (37-45%), labour productivity loss (18-37%) and indirect loss (12-43%) under different shared socioeconomic pathways. Small- and medium-sized developing countries suffer disproportionately from higher health loss in South-Central Africa (2.1 to 4.0 times above global average) and labour productivity loss in West Africa and Southeast Asia (2.0-3.3 times above global average). The supply-chain disruption effects are much more widespread with strong hit to those manufacturing-heavy countries such as China and the USA, leading to soaring economic losses of 2.7 ± 0.7% and 1.8 ± 0.5%, respectively.
证据表明,全球热浪的频率和强度持续增加,这引发了人们对气候变化未来影响以及相关社会经济成本的担忧。在这里,我们通过整合气候、流行病学以及投入产出和可计算一般均衡全球贸易混合模型,开发了一个灾害足迹分析框架,以估计与热应激相关的本世纪中叶社会经济影响。我们考虑了与热暴露相关的健康成本、因热导致的劳动生产力损失的价值以及因经济中断通过供应链蔓延而导致的间接损失。在这里,我们表明,全球年增量国内生产总值损失从 2030-2040 年期间的 0.03±0.01(SSP245)-0.05±0.03(SSP585)个百分点呈指数增长,到 2050-2060 年期间的 0.05±0.01-0.15±0.04 个百分点。到 2060 年,预计全球经济损失将达到 0.6-4.6%,其中健康损失(37-45%)、劳动生产力损失(18-37%)和间接损失(12-43%)占总损失的比例因不同的共享社会经济途径而有所不同。中小发展中国家在中非南部(比全球平均值高 2.1 至 4.0 倍)的健康损失和西非和东南亚的劳动生产力损失(比全球平均值高 2.0-3.3 倍)方面遭受不成比例的更高损失。供应链中断的影响更为广泛,对中国和美国等制造业大国造成严重打击,导致经济损失分别飙升 2.7±0.7%和 1.8±0.5%。
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