College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Nat Food. 2023 Jul;4(7):552-564. doi: 10.1038/s43016-023-00790-1. Epub 2023 Jul 3.
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, among other negative-emission technologies, is required for China to achieve carbon neutrality-yet it may hinder land-based Sustainable Development Goals. Using modelling and scenario analysis, we investigate how to mitigate the potential adverse impacts on the food system of ambitious bioenergy deployment in China and its trading partners. We find that producing bioenergy domestically while sticking to the food self-sufficiency ratio redlines would lower China's daily per capita calorie intake by 8% and increase domestic food prices by 23% by 2060. Removing China's food self-sufficiency ratio restrictions could halve the domestic food dilemma but risks transferring environmental burdens to other countries, whereas halving food loss and waste, shifting to healthier diets and narrowing crop yield gaps could effectively mitigate these external effects. Our results show that simultaneously achieving carbon neutrality, food security and global sustainability requires a careful combination of these measures.
生物能源碳捕集与封存技术(BECCS 等负排放技术)是中国实现碳中和的必要手段,但可能会对基于陆地的可持续发展目标造成阻碍。本研究采用建模和情景分析的方法,旨在探讨如何减轻在中国及其贸易伙伴中大规模部署生物能源对粮食系统可能产生的负面影响。结果表明,到 2060 年,若坚持国内粮食自给率红线,在国内生产生物能源,中国居民的日均卡路里摄入量将减少 8%,国内食品价格将上涨 23%。取消中国的粮食自给率限制虽可缓解国内粮食困境,但可能会将环境负担转移到其他国家,而减少粮食损失和浪费、转向更健康的饮食结构以及缩小作物产量差距则可有效减轻这些外部影响。研究结果表明,要同时实现碳中和、粮食安全和全球可持续性,需要谨慎结合这些措施。