Unit of Periodontology, University Medicine, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt University Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
J Clin Periodontol. 2014 Mar;41(3):224-31. doi: 10.1111/jcpe.12208. Epub 2014 Jan 5.
To develop models for periodontitis using self-reported questions and to validate them externally.
The Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-0) was used for model development. Periodontitis was defined according to the definitions of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention-American Academy of Periodontology, the 5th European Workshop in Periodontology, and Dietrich et al. (≥2 teeth with inter-proximal clinical attachment loss of ≥4 mm and 6 mm as moderate and severe periodontitis) respectively. These models were validated in SHIP-Trend and the Fourth German Oral Health Study (DMS IV).
Final models included age, gender, education, smoking, bleeding on brushing and self-reported presence of mobile teeth. Concordance-statistics (C-statistics) of the final models from SHIP-0 were 0.84, 0.82 and 0.85 for the three definitions respectively. Validation in SHIP-Trend revealed C-statistics of 0.82, 0.81 and 0.82 respectively. As bleeding on brushing and presence of mobile teeth were unavailable in DMS IV, reduced models were developed. C-statistics of reduced models were 0.82, 0.81 and 0.83 respectively. Validation in DMS IV revealed C-statistics of 0.72, 0.78 and 0.72 for the three definitions respectively. All p values of the goodness-of-fit tests were >0.05.
The models yielded a moderate usefulness for prediction of periodontitis.
使用自我报告的问题建立牙周炎模型，并对其进行外部验证。
使用波罗的海健康研究（SHIP-0）进行模型开发。牙周炎根据疾病控制与预防中心-美国牙周病学会、第五次欧洲牙周病研讨会以及Dietrich 等人的定义进行定义（≥2 颗牙齿的近中临床附着丧失≥4mm 和 6mm 分别为中度和重度牙周炎）。这些模型在 SHIP-Trend 和第四次德国口腔健康研究（DMS IV）中进行了验证。
最终模型包括年龄、性别、教育、吸烟、刷牙出血和自我报告的松动牙齿。SHIP-0 中最终模型的一致性统计（C 统计量）分别为 0.84、0.82 和 0.85，用于三种定义。SHIP-Trend 的验证结果显示，C 统计量分别为 0.82、0.81 和 0.82。由于 DMS IV 中没有刷牙出血和松动牙齿的信息，因此开发了简化模型。简化模型的 C 统计量分别为 0.82、0.81 和 0.83。DMS IV 的验证结果显示，三种定义的 C 统计量分别为 0.72、0.78 和 0.72。所有拟合优度检验的 p 值均大于 0.05。
这些模型对预测牙周炎有一定的作用。
