Department of Epidemiology, Shanghai Cancer Institute, Renji Hospital, Shanghai JiaoTong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China ; State Key Laboratory of Oncogene and Related Genes, Shanghai Cancer Institute, Renji Hospital, Shanghai JiaoTong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
PLoS One. 2013 Dec 4;8(12):e82430. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0082430. eCollection 2013.
We examined the incidence trends of bladder and kidney cancers using a population-based cancer registration data.
Age-standardized incidence rates were analyzed using data from the Shanghai Cancer Registry during 1973 to 2005. Annual percentage changes and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to evaluate the incidence changes. Age-period-cohort analysis was further implemented to assess the contributions of age, period and cohort effects to the trends using the intrinsic estimator method.
In total, 12,676 bladder and 5,811 kidney cancer patients were registered in urban Shanghai. The age-standardized rates of bladder cancer in males increased from 6.39 to 7.66 per 100,000, or 0.62% per year, whereas the rates in females increased from 1.95 to 2.09 per 100,000, or 0.33% per year. For kidney cancer, the age-standardized rates in males increased from 1.20 to 5.64 per 100,000, or 6.98% per year. Similarly in females, the rates increased from 0.85 to 3.33 per 100,000, or 5.93% per year. Age-period-cohort analysis showed increasing curves of age and period effects but generally decreasing cohort effects for bladder and kidney cancers.
Our results show increasing incidence trends of bladder and kidney cancers in Chinese men and women, especially for kidney cancer.
我们利用基于人群的癌症登记数据研究膀胱癌和肾癌的发病率趋势。
利用 1973 年至 2005 年上海癌症登记处的数据分析年龄标准化发病率。计算年度百分比变化和 95%置信区间，以评估发病率变化。进一步实施年龄-时期-队列分析，使用内在估计量法评估年龄、时期和队列效应对趋势的贡献。
在上海市区共登记膀胱癌 12676 例，肾癌 5811 例。男性膀胱癌的年龄标准化发病率从 6.39 升至 7.66/10 万，每年增长 0.62%；女性从 1.95 升至 2.09/10 万，每年增长 0.33%。男性肾癌的年龄标准化发病率从 1.20 升至 5.64/10 万，每年增长 6.98%；女性从 0.85 升至 3.33/10 万，每年增长 5.93%。年龄-时期-队列分析显示，膀胱癌和肾癌的年龄和时期效应呈上升曲线，但总体上队列效应呈下降趋势。
本研究结果显示，中国男性和女性膀胱癌和肾癌的发病率呈上升趋势，尤其是肾癌。
