Quantitative assessment of the risk of microbial spoilage in foods. Prediction of non-stability at 55 °C caused by Geobacillus stearothermophilus in canned green beans.

Microbial spoilage of canned foods by thermophilic and highly heat-resistant spore-forming bacteria, such as Geobacillus stearothermophilus, is a persistent problem in the food industry. An incubation test at 55 °C for 7 days, then validation of biological stability, is used as an indicator of compliance with good manufacturing practices. We propose a microbial risk assessment model predicting the percentage of non-stability due to G. stearothermophilus in canned green beans manufactured by a French company. The model accounts for initial microbial contaminations of fresh unprocessed green beans with G. stearothermophilus, cross-contaminations in the processing chain, inactivation processes and probability of survival and growth. The sterilization process is modeled by an equivalent heating time depending on sterilization value F₀ and on G. stearothermophilus resistance parameter z(T). Following the recommendations of international organizations, second order Monte-Carlo simulations are used, separately propagating uncertainty and variability on parameters. As a result of the model, the mean predicted non-stability rate is of 0.5%, with a 95% uncertainty interval of [0.1%; 1.2%], which is highly similar to data communicated by the French industry. A sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices and some scenario tests underline the importance of cross-contamination at the blanching step, in addition to inactivation due to the sterilization process.