Binnington Matthew J, Quinn Cristina L, McLachlan Michael S, Wania Frank
Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Environ Health Perspect. 2014 Feb;122(2):178-86. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1206380. Epub 2013 Dec 17.
Because human exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) occurs mainly through ingestion of contaminated food, regulatory bodies issue dietary consumption advisories to describe safe intake levels for food items of concern, particularly fish.
Our study goal was to estimate the effectiveness of fish consumption advisories in reducing exposure of infants and children to POPs.
We used the time-variant mechanistic model CoZMoMAN to estimate and compare prenatal, postnatal, and childhood exposure to polychlorinated biphenyl congener PCB-153 under different scenarios of maternal guideline adherence for both hypothetical constant and realistic time-variant chemical emissions. The scenarios differed in terms of length of compliance (1 vs. 5 years), extent of fish substitution (all vs. half), and replacement diet (uncontaminated produce vs. beef). We also estimated potential exposure reductions for a range of theoretical chemicals to explore how guideline effectiveness varies with a chemical's partitioning and degradation properties.
When assuming realistic time periods of advisory compliance, our findings suggest that temporarily eliminating or reducing maternal fish consumption is largely ineffective in reducing pre- and postnatal exposure to substances with long elimination half-lives in humans, especially during periods of decreasing environmental emissions. Substituting fish with beef may actually result in higher exposure to certain groups of environmental contaminants. On the other hand, advisories may be highly effective in reducing exposure to substances with elimination half-lives in humans shorter than the length of compliance.
Our model estimates suggest that fish consumption advisories are unlikely to be effective in reducing prenatal, postnatal, and childhood exposures to compounds with long elimination half-lives in humans.
由于人类接触持久性有机污染物（POPs）主要通过摄入受污染的食物，监管机构发布饮食消费建议，以描述相关食品（尤其是鱼类）的安全摄入量水平。
我们的研究目标是评估鱼类消费建议在减少婴幼儿接触POPs方面的有效性。
我们使用时变机理模型CoZMoMAN，在假设的恒定和实际时变化学排放情况下，针对母亲遵循指南的不同场景，估算并比较产前、产后和儿童期对多氯联苯同系物PCB - 153的接触情况。这些场景在遵守时间长度（1年与5年）、鱼类替代程度（全部与一半）以及替代饮食（未受污染的农产品与牛肉）方面存在差异。我们还估算了一系列理论化学品的潜在接触减少量，以探讨指南有效性如何随化学品的分配和降解特性而变化。
假设实际的建议遵守时间段，我们的研究结果表明，暂时消除或减少母亲的鱼类消费在很大程度上无法有效减少人类体内消除半衰期长的物质在产前和产后的接触，尤其是在环境排放减少的时期。用牛肉替代鱼类实际上可能导致某些环境污染物组的接触增加。另一方面，建议在减少人类体内消除半衰期短于遵守时间长度的物质的接触方面可能非常有效。
我们的模型估算表明，鱼类消费建议不太可能有效减少人类产前、产后和儿童期对消除半衰期长的化合物的接触。
