Key Laboratory of Integrated Regulation and Resource Development on Shallow Lakes, Ministry of Education, College of Environment, HoHai University, Nanjing, 210098, China,
Ecotoxicology. 2014 May;23(4):584-8. doi: 10.1007/s10646-014-1179-9. Epub 2014 Jan 14.
A probabilistic carcinogenic risk assessment of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in four big cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xiamen) of China was carried out. PAHs levels in these cities were collected from published literatures and converted into BaP equivalent (BaPeq) concentrations. The health risk assessment models recommended by US EPA were applied to quantitatively characterize the health risk values of PAHs. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk assessment. The results showed that BaPeq concentrations of four cities were all higher than the newest limited value (1 ng/m(3)) of China. Health risk assessment indicated that atmospheric PAHs in Guangzhou and Xiamen posed no or little carcinogenic risk on local residents. However, the PAHs in Beijing and Shanghai posed potential carcinogenic risk for adults and lifetime exposure. Notwithstanding the uncertainties, this study provides the primary information on the carcinogenic risk of atmospheric PAHs in studied cities of China.
中国四个大城市(北京、上海、广州、厦门)大气多环芳烃(PAHs)的概率致癌风险评估。从已发表的文献中收集了这些城市的 PAHs 水平,并将其转化为 BaP 当量(BaPeq)浓度。应用美国环保署推荐的健康风险评估模型定量描述 PAHs 的健康风险值。应用蒙特卡罗模拟和敏感性分析量化风险评估的不确定性。结果表明,四个城市的 BaPeq 浓度均高于中国最新的限值(1ng/m(3))。健康风险评估表明,广州和厦门大气中的 PAHs 对当地居民没有或几乎没有致癌风险。然而,北京和上海的 PAHs 对成年人和终生暴露存在潜在的致癌风险。尽管存在不确定性,但本研究提供了中国研究城市大气 PAHs 致癌风险的初步信息。