State key lab of pollutant control and resource reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2011 Dec 1;410-411:112-8. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.09.046. Epub 2011 Oct 11.
A carcinogenic risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in source water and drinking water of China was conducted using probabilistic techniques from a national perspective. The published monitoring data of PAHs were gathered and converted into BaP equivalent (BaP(eq)) concentrations. Based on the transformed data, comprehensive risk assessment was performed by considering different age groups and exposure pathways. Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis were applied to quantify uncertainties of risk estimation. The risk analysis indicated that, the risk values for children and teens were lower than the accepted value (1.00E-05), indicating no significant carcinogenic risk. The probability of risk values above 1.00E-05 was 5.8% and 6.7% for adults and lifetime groups, respectively. Overall, carcinogenic risks of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China were mostly accepted. However, specific regions, such as Yellow river of Lanzhou reach and Qiantang river should be paid more attention. Notwithstanding the uncertainties inherent in the risk assessment, this study is the first attempt to provide information on carcinogenic risk of PAHs in source water and drinking water of China, and might be useful for potential strategies of carcinogenic risk management and reduction.
从国家层面出发,运用概率技术对中国水源水和饮用水中的多环芳烃(PAHs)进行了致癌风险评估。收集了已公布的 PAHs 监测数据,并将其转化为苯并[a]芘等效浓度(BaP(eq))。基于转化后的数据,通过考虑不同年龄组和暴露途径,进行了综合风险评估。采用蒙特卡罗模拟和敏感性分析来量化风险估计的不确定性。风险分析表明,儿童和青少年的风险值低于可接受值(1.00E-05),表明不存在显著的致癌风险。对于成年人和终生组,风险值大于 1.00E-05的概率分别为 5.8%和 6.7%。总体而言,中国水源水和饮用水中 PAHs 的致癌风险大多是可以接受的。然而,对于兰州黄河段和钱塘江等特定地区,仍需加以关注。尽管风险评估存在固有不确定性,但本研究首次提供了中国水源水和饮用水中 PAHs 的致癌风险信息,可能对潜在的致癌风险管理和降低策略有用。