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[中国广东省传染病自动预警与响应系统的现状]

[Current situation on the China infectious disease automated-alert and response system in Guangdong Province, China].

作者信息

Fang Yan, Song Tie, Li Ling-Hui, Dai Ji-Ya, Yi Jian-Rong, Fu Jun-Hua, Xie Xue-Mei, Lin Jin-Yan

机构信息

Public Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Division, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2013 Aug;34(8):800-3.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the current situation on China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) in Guangdong province, China.

METHODS

Early-warning signals and response time were analyzed by using three approaches of CIDARS. Positive rates of early-warning signals and error early-warning rates prior and after the adjustment,were compared.

RESULTS

Totally, 114 585 early-warning signals appeared, with an average response time of 1.35 hours from April 21, 2008 to December 31, 2012. There were 12,394 early-warning signals in terms of fixed threshold method with a positive rate of 7.96%. 85 727 early-warning signals appeared under the mobile percentile method with a positive rate of 0.85%. There were 16,464 early-warning signals by using accumulation and control chart methods,with a positive rate of 1.82%. Results showed there was a positive correlation between the number of reported cases and the number of early-warning signals (r = 0.924, P < 0.01). The overall positive rate in Guangdong province increased from 1.48% to 2.14%, after the adjustment done by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in 2010. The error early-warning rates regarding eight infectious diseases including hepatitis A, bacillary or amebic dysentery, both typhoid and paratyphoid fevers had reduced.

CONCLUSION

The early-warning signal response appeared timely in CIDARS with good operation. However, despite the improvement on the efficacy of CIDARS, some functions and parameters of the systems still need to be adjusted.

摘要

目的

分析中国广东省传染病自动预警与响应系统(CIDARS)的现状。

方法

采用CIDARS的三种方法分析预警信号和响应时间。比较调整前后预警信号的阳性率和误报率。

结果

2008年4月21日至2012年12月31日,共出现114585个预警信号,平均响应时间为1.35小时。固定阈值法产生12394个预警信号,阳性率为7.96%。移动百分位数法出现85727个预警信号,阳性率为0.85%。累积和控制图法产生16464个预警信号,阳性率为1.82%。结果显示报告病例数与预警信号数呈正相关(r = 0.924,P < 0.01)。2010年中国疾病预防控制中心调整后,广东省的总体阳性率从1.48%提高到2.14%。甲型肝炎、细菌性或阿米巴性痢疾、伤寒和副伤寒等8种传染病的误报率有所降低。

结论

CIDARS预警信号响应及时,运行良好。然而,尽管CIDARS的效能有所提高,但其一些功能和参数仍需调整。

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