Cheng Y, Liu X F, Meng L, Yang X T, Liu D P, Wei K F, Jiang X J, Liu H X, Zheng Y H
Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2018 Mar 10;39(3):352-356. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.03.020.
To optimize the warning threshold values of common communicable diseases in Gansu province, and improve the early warning effect. An early warning model was set up for influenza, scarlet fever, other infectious diarrheal diseases, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid, viral hepatitis type E and hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) respectively in Gansu by using the moving percentile method and cumulative sum method. By calculating the sensitivity, specificity, predictive value of positive test, predictive value of negative test, Youden' index and receiver-operating characteristic curve, the optimum early warning threshold values for communicable diseases in Gansu were selected. The optimum early warning boundary values of influenza, scarlet fever, other infectious diarrheal diseases, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid, and viral hepatitis type E were and respectively. The optimum early warning parameters of HFMD were =1.2, =5. Under the optimum early warning boundary values/parameters, the early warning sensitivities of influenza, scarlet fever, other infectious diarrheal diseases, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid, viral hepatitis type E and HFMD were 86.67%, 100.00%, 91.67%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 100.00% and 100.00%, the specificities were 86.49%, 62.22%, 75.00%, 100.00%, 97.92%, 89.13% and 74.47%. The predictive values of positive test were 72.22%, 29.17%, 52.38%, 100.00%, 80.00%, 54.55% and 29.41%, and the predictive values of negative test were 94.12%, 100.00%, 96.77%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 100.00% and 100.00%, and the Youden' indexes were 0.73, 0.62, 0.67, 1.00, 0.98,0.89 and 0.74. Receiver-operating characteristic curve showed that the values/parameters of this warning boundary were the points closest to the upper left of the coordinate diagram. The early warning thresholds of influenza, other infectious diarrheal diseases, dysentery and hepatitis E in Gansu may be raised appropriately and the early warning parameters of HFMD need to be adjusted to improve the effectiveness of early warning.
为优化甘肃省常见传染病的预警阈值，提高预警效果。采用移动百分位数法和累积和法，分别建立甘肃省流感、猩红热、其他感染性腹泻病、痢疾、伤寒和副伤寒、戊型病毒性肝炎及手足口病（HFMD）的预警模型。通过计算灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值、约登指数及受试者工作特征曲线，选取甘肃省传染病的最佳预警阈值。流感、猩红热、其他感染性腹泻病、痢疾、伤寒和副伤寒、戊型病毒性肝炎的最佳预警界限值分别为[具体数值缺失]和[具体数值缺失]。手足口病的最佳预警参数为=1.2，=5。在最佳预警界限值/参数下，流感、猩红热、其他感染性腹泻病、痢疾、伤寒和副伤寒、戊型病毒性肝炎及手足口病的预警灵敏度分别为86.67%、100.00%、91.67%、100.00%、100.00%、100.00%和100.00%，特异度分别为86.49%、62.22%、75.00%、100.00%、97.92%、89.13%和74.47%。阳性预测值分别为72.22%、29.17%、52.38%、100.00%、80.00%、54.55%和29.41%，阴性预测值分别为94.12%、100.00%、96.77%、100.00%、100.00%、100.00%和100.00%，约登指数分别为0.73、0.62、0.67、1.00、0.98、0.89和0.74。受试者工作特征曲线显示，该预警界限值/参数为坐标图中最靠近左上角的点。甘肃省流感、其他感染性腹泻病、痢疾及戊型肝炎的预警阈值可适当提高，手足口病的预警参数需调整，以提高预警效果。
