Brooks Stephen J, Self Angela, Toloni Flavia, Sparks Tim
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London, SW7 5BD, UK,
Int J Biometeorol. 2014 Oct;58(8):1749-58. doi: 10.1007/s00484-013-0780-6. Epub 2014 Jan 16.
Museum collections have the potential to provide valuable information on the phenological response of organisms to climate change. This is particularly useful for those species for which few data otherwise exist, but also to extend time series to the period before other observational data are available. To test this potential, we analysed data from 2,630 specimens of four species of British butterflies (Anthocharis cardamines, Hamearis lucina, Polyommatus bellargus and Pyrgus malvae), collected from 1876 to 1999 and stored in the Natural History Museum, London, UK (NHM). In A. cardamines, first-generation P. bellargus and P. malvae, we found that there was a strong significant negative relationship between spring temperature and 10th percentile collection dates, which approximates mean first appearance date, and median collection date, which approximates mean flight date. In all four species, there was a significant negative relationship between the 10th percentile collection date and the length of the collection period, which approximates flight period. In second-generation P. bellargus, these phenological measurements were correlated with summer temperature. We found that the rates of phenological response to temperature, based on NHM data, were similar to, or somewhat greater than, those reported for other organisms based on observational data covering the last 40 years. The lower rate of phenological response, and the significant influence of February rather than March or April temperatures, in recent decades compared with data from earlier in the twentieth century may indicate that early emerging British butterfly species are currently approaching the limits of phenological advancement in response to recent climate warming.
博物馆藏品有潜力提供有关生物体对气候变化物候响应的宝贵信息。这对于那些几乎没有其他数据的物种尤其有用,同时也能将时间序列扩展到其他观测数据可用之前的时期。为了测试这种潜力,我们分析了来自英国四种蝴蝶(碎斑青凤蝶、白钩蛱蝶、大蓝闪蝶和小毛毡苔蛱蝶)的2630个标本的数据,这些标本采集于1876年至1999年,保存在英国伦敦自然历史博物馆(NHM)。在碎斑青凤蝶、第一代大蓝闪蝶和小毛毡苔蛱蝶中,我们发现春季温度与第10百分位数采集日期(近似于首次出现平均日期)以及中位数采集日期(近似于平均飞行日期)之间存在强烈的显著负相关关系。在所有四个物种中,第10百分位数采集日期与采集期长度(近似于飞行期)之间存在显著负相关关系。在第二代大蓝闪蝶中,这些物候测量与夏季温度相关。我们发现,基于NHM数据的物候对温度的响应速率与基于过去40年观测数据报道的其他生物体的响应速率相似,或略高一些。与20世纪早期的数据相比,近几十年来物候响应速率较低,以及2月而非3月或4月温度的显著影响,可能表明英国早期出现的蝴蝶物种目前在应对近期气候变暖时正接近物候提前的极限。