Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, , New Haven, CT 06511, USA, School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska Lincoln, , Lincoln, NE 68588, USA, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, , Toronto, Ontario, Canada , M5S 3G5, School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, , Christchurch, New Zealand, School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, , Orono, ME 04469, USA, Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, , Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada , V6T 1Z4, Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, , Guelph, Ontario, Canada , N1G 2W1, Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, , Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA, Santa Fe Institute, , Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA.
Proc Biol Sci. 2014 Jan 29;281(1779):20132612. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2013.2612. Print 2014 Mar 22.
Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050-2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance.
预计在不久的将来，极端温度的频率、严重程度和持续时间将会增加。尽管最近的研究表明，温度变化的变化对物种的影响将超过平均值的变化，但生态学中大部分气候变化研究都集中在平均温度变化的影响上。在这里，我们将精细的气候预测（2050-2059 年）与 38 种外温动物无脊椎动物的热性能数据相结合，并将预测结果与简单模型进行对比。我们表明，仅基于平均温度变化的预测与考虑到变化的预测以及平均温度和方差共同变化的预测有很大的不同。尽管大多数物种在更高的平均温度下表现出性能提高，但平均值和方差的变化一起产生了一系列的反应，温带物种面临着性能下降的最大风险。我们的工作强调了在评估和预测性能时，使用精细的时间数据来纳入温度变化的全部范围的重要性。
