EMPA, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology , Technology and Society Laboratory, Lerchenfeldstrasse 5, CH-9014 St. Gallen, Switzerland.
Environ Sci Technol. 2014 Feb 18;48(4):2102-13. doi: 10.1021/es403506a. Epub 2014 Feb 4.
Dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) is a frequently used method to assess past, present, and future stocks and flows of metals in the anthroposphere. Over the past fifteen years, dynamic MFA has contributed to increased knowledge about the quantities, qualities, and locations of metal-containing goods. This article presents a literature review of the methodologies applied in 60 dynamic MFAs of metals. The review is based on a standardized model description format, the ODD (overview, design concepts, details) protocol. We focus on giving a comprehensive overview of modeling approaches and structure them according to essential aspects, such as their treatment of material dissipation, spatial dimension of flows, or data uncertainty. The reviewed literature features similar basic modeling principles but very diverse extrapolation methods. Basic principles include the calculation of outflows of the in-use stock based on inflow or stock data and a lifetime distribution function. For extrapolating stocks and flows, authors apply constant, linear, exponential, and logistic models or approaches based on socioeconomic variables, such as regression models or the intensity-of-use hypothesis. The consideration and treatment of further aspects, such as dissipation, spatial distribution, and data uncertainty, vary significantly and highly depends on the objectives of each study.
动态物质流分析（MFA）是一种常用于评估金属在人类活动中的过去、现在和未来存量和流量的方法。在过去的十五年中，动态 MFA 有助于增加对含金属商品的数量、质量和位置的了解。本文对 60 项金属动态 MFA 中应用的方法进行了文献回顾。该综述基于标准化模型描述格式 ODD（概述、设计概念、细节）协议。我们专注于全面概述建模方法，并根据重要方面对其进行结构划分，例如它们对物质耗散、流动的空间维度或数据不确定性的处理。回顾的文献具有相似的基本建模原则，但外推方法却非常多样化。基本原则包括根据流入或存量数据计算使用中存量的流出量，并使用寿命分布函数。为了外推存量和流量，作者应用常数、线性、指数和逻辑模型，或基于社会经济变量的方法，例如回归模型或使用强度假设。对进一步方面的考虑和处理，如耗散、空间分布和数据不确定性，差异很大，高度取决于每项研究的目标。
