Li Shupeng, Zhang Tingan
School of Metallurgy, Northeastern University, Shenyang, 110819 China.
Key Laboratory of Ecological Metallurgy of Multi-Metal Intergrown Ores of Ministry of Education, Shenyang, 110819 China.
J Sustain Metall. 2022;8(4):1472-1484. doi: 10.1007/s40831-022-00582-0. Epub 2022 Aug 29.
Aluminum is widely used in buildings, transportation, and home appliances. However, primary aluminum production is a resource, energy, and emission-intensive industrial process. As the world's largest aluminum producer, the aluminum industry (ALD) in China faces tremendous pressure on environmental protection. This study combines material flow analysis and scenario analysis to investigate the potential of resource conservation, energy saving, and emission reduction for China's ALD under the import and export trade transition. The results show China's per capita aluminum stock will follow a logistic curve to reach 415 kg/capita by 2030. However, unlike the continued build-up of stocks, domestic demand for aluminum will peak at 44 million tons (MT) in 2025 and fall to 36 MT in 2030. The scenario analysis reveals that China's primary aluminum output could peak in 2025 at around 52 MT if the restrictions are not implemented (Scenario A). Compared to Scenario A, demand for primary aluminum is effectively limited in Scenarios B and C where exports of aluminum products are reduced. Correspondingly, both scenarios also have obvious benefits in reducing the environmental load of China's ALD. Besides, if hydropower used in aluminum electrolysis increases to 25% by 2030, the total GHG emissions in 2030 will be reduced by 12%. Therefore, promoting import/export and energy mix transformation can become an essential means for the sustainable development of China's ALD.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40831-022-00582-0.
铝广泛应用于建筑、交通和家电领域。然而，原铝生产是一个资源、能源和排放密集型的工业过程。作为全球最大的铝生产国，中国的铝行业面临着巨大的环境保护压力。本研究结合物质流分析和情景分析，探讨在进出口贸易转型背景下中国铝行业的资源节约、节能和减排潜力。结果表明，中国的人均铝存量将遵循逻辑曲线，到2030年达到人均415千克。然而，与存量的持续增加不同，国内铝需求将在2025年达到峰值4400万吨，到2030年降至3600万吨。情景分析表明，如果不实施限制措施（情景A），中国原铝产量可能在2025年达到峰值，约为5200万吨。与情景A相比，在减少铝产品出口的情景B和情景C中，原铝需求得到有效限制。相应地，这两种情景在减轻中国铝行业的环境负荷方面也有明显益处。此外，如果到2030年用于电解铝的水电增加到25%，2030年的温室气体排放总量将减少12%。因此，促进进出口和能源结构转型可以成为中国铝行业可持续发展的重要手段。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s40831-022-00582-0获取的补充材料。
