Nelson Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 550 North Park Street, Madison, WI 53706-1404, U.S.A., Living with Lions, P.O. Box 555, Nanyuki 10400, Kenya.
Conserv Biol. 2014 Jun;28(3):851-60. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12244. Epub 2014 Feb 13.
Lion (Panthera leo) populations are in decline throughout most of Africa. The problem is particularly acute in southern Kenya, where Maasai pastoralists have been spearing and poisoning lions at a rate that will ensure near term local extinction. We investigated 2 approaches for improving local tolerance of lions: compensation payments for livestock lost to predators and Lion Guardians, which draws on local cultural values and knowledge to mitigate livestock-carnivore conflict and monitor carnivores. To gauge the overall influence of conservation intervention, we combined both programs into a single conservation treatment variable. Using 8 years of lion killing data, we applied Manski's partial identification approach with bounded assumptions to investigate the effect of conservation treatment on lion killing in 4 contiguous areas. In 3 of the areas, conservation treatment was positively associated with a reduction in lion killing. We then applied a generalized linear model to assess the relative efficacy of the 2 interventions. The model estimated that compensation resulted in an 87-91% drop in the number of lions killed, whereas Lion Guardians (operating in combination with compensation and alone) resulted in a 99% drop in lion killing.
狮子（Panthera leo）种群在非洲大部分地区都在减少。肯尼亚南部的情况尤其严重，马赛游牧民以极快的速度用矛刺和下毒来杀死狮子，这将确保狮子在近期内本地灭绝。我们研究了两种改善当地对狮子容忍度的方法：对因捕食者而损失的牲畜进行补偿支付，以及利用当地文化价值观和知识来减轻牲畜与食肉动物冲突并监测食肉动物的狮子守护者。为了评估保护干预的整体影响，我们将这两个项目合并为一个单一的保护处理变量。利用 8 年的狮子捕杀数据，我们应用曼斯基的部分识别方法和有界假设，调查了在 4 个相邻地区的保护处理对狮子捕杀的影响。在 3 个地区，保护处理与狮子捕杀的减少呈正相关。然后，我们应用广义线性模型来评估这两种干预措施的相对效果。该模型估计，补偿导致狮子被杀数量减少了 87-91%，而狮子守护者（与补偿一起或单独运作）则导致狮子捕杀数量减少了 99%。
