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德国核电站工人历史队列中的死亡风险:第二次随访结果

Mortality risk in a historical cohort of nuclear power plant workers in Germany: results from a second follow-up.

作者信息

Merzenich Hiltrud, Hammer Gaël P, Tröltzsch Katrin, Ruecker Kai, Buncke Johanna, Fehringer Franz, Blettner Maria

机构信息

Institute of Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University Medical Center Mainz, Obere Zahlbacher Str. 69, 55131, Mainz, Germany,

出版信息

Radiat Environ Biophys. 2014 May;53(2):405-16. doi: 10.1007/s00411-014-0523-z. Epub 2014 Feb 20.

Abstract

Possible health effects of low and protracted doses of ionizing radiation are relevant for persons who are exposed to an occupational context like nuclear industry workers. A historical cohort study was therefore conducted to examine mortality risks following occupational radiation exposure among 4,844 German nuclear power plant workers. This cohort included workers from ten nuclear power plants with an observational period from 1991 until 1997. The results of an enlarged cohort with 8,972 workers from all 17 nuclear power plants in West Germany are now available. During the extended follow-up period from 1991 to 2008, a total of 310 deaths among men were observed. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) from all causes of deaths was estimated at 0.50 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.45-0.56]. A total of 126 deaths due to cancer occurred (SMR = 0.65; 95 % CI 0.51-0.82) and seven deaths due to leukemia (SMR = 1.23; 95 % CI 0.42-2.84). Overall, a reduced mortality compared to the general population of West Germany was observed indicating a healthy worker effect. In the dose-response analysis, no statistically significant risk due to ionizing radiation was seen. The hazard ratio (HR/mSv) for leukemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia was estimated at 1.004 (95 % CI 0.997-1.011). In conclusion, the cohort is small and made up of young workers, most of whom were still employed at the end of the observational period in 2008. Results of the external analysis are difficult to interpret as influenced by a healthy worker effect. In the internal analysis, no excess of risk due to radiation was detected.

摘要

低剂量长期电离辐射对健康的潜在影响与核工业工人等处于职业环境中的人员相关。因此,开展了一项历史性队列研究,以调查4844名德国核电站工人职业性辐射暴露后的死亡风险。该队列包括来自10座核电站的工人,观察期为1991年至1997年。现在已有来自西德全部17座核电站的8972名工人组成的扩大队列的结果。在1991年至2008年的延长随访期内,共观察到男性死亡310例。所有死因的标准化死亡比(SMR)估计为0.50[95%置信区间(CI)0.45 - 0.56]。癌症导致的死亡共126例(SMR = 0.65;95% CI 0.51 - 0.82),白血病导致的死亡7例(SMR = 1.23;95% CI 0.42 - 2.84)。总体而言,观察到与西德普通人群相比死亡率降低,表明存在健康工人效应。在剂量反应分析中,未发现电离辐射导致的具有统计学意义的风险。排除慢性淋巴细胞白血病后的白血病风险比(HR/mSv)估计为1.004(95% CI 0.997 - 1.011)。总之,该队列规模较小且由年轻工人组成,其中大多数在2008年观察期结束时仍在职。外部分析结果受健康工人效应影响难以解释。在内部分析中,未检测到辐射导致的额外风险。

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