Papachristos Andrew V, Wildeman Christopher, Roberto Elizabeth
Yale University, Department of Sociology, PO Box 208265, New Haven, CT 06520, United States.
Yale University, Department of Sociology, PO Box 208265, New Haven, CT 06520, United States.
Soc Sci Med. 2015 Jan;125:139-50. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.01.056. Epub 2014 Feb 6.
This study investigates the concentration of nonfatal gunshot injuries within risky social networks. Using six years of data on gunshot victimization and arrests in Chicago, we reconstruct patterns of co-offending for the city and locate gunshot victims within these networks. Results indicate that 70 percent of all nonfatal gunshot victims during the observation period can be located in co-offending networks comprised of less than 6 percent of the city's population. Results from logistic regression models suggest that as an individual's exposure to gunshot victims increases, so too do that individual's odds of victimization. Furthermore, even small amounts of exposure can dramatically increase the odds of victimization. For instance, every 1 percent increase in exposure to gunshot victims in one's immediate network increases the odds of victimization by roughly 1.1 percent, holding all else constant. These observed associations are more pronounced for young minority males, and effects of exposure extend to indirect network ties at distances of two to three steps removed. These findings imply that the risk of gunshot victimization is more concentrated than previously thought, being concentrated in small and identifiable networks of individuals engaging in risky behavior, in this case criminal activity.
本研究调查了危险社会网络中非致命枪伤的集中情况。利用芝加哥六年的枪伤受害情况和逮捕数据，我们重构了该市的共同犯罪模式，并在这些网络中确定枪伤受害者的位置。结果表明，在观察期内，所有非致命枪伤受害者中有70%可位于由该市不到6%的人口组成的共同犯罪网络中。逻辑回归模型的结果表明，随着个体接触枪伤受害者的机会增加，其成为受害者的几率也会增加。此外，即使是少量的接触也会显著增加成为受害者的几率。例如，在一个人的直接社交网络中，接触枪伤受害者的机会每增加1%，在其他条件不变的情况下，成为受害者的几率就会增加约1.1%。这些观察到的关联在年轻的少数族裔男性中更为明显，而且接触的影响会延伸到距离两到三步之遥的间接社交网络关系。这些发现意味着，枪伤受害风险比之前认为的更加集中，集中在从事危险行为（在这种情况下是犯罪活动）的小型且可识别个人网络中。
