Chen Gang
Flinders Health Economics Group, School of Medicine, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia
Eur J Public Health. 2014 Aug;24(4):612-4. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/cku014. Epub 2014 Feb 24.
Using longitudinal data from 32 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (1970-2010), this article investigates association between annual variations in road mortality and the economic fluctuations. Two regression models (fixed-effects and random-coefficients) were adopted for estimation. The cross-country data analyses suggested that road mortality is pro-cyclical and that the cyclicality is symmetric. Based on data from 32 OECD countries, an increase of on average 1% in economic growth is associated with a 1.1% increase in road mortality, and vice versa.
本文利用经济合作与发展组织（OECD）32个国家1970年至2010年的纵向数据，研究道路死亡率的年度变化与经济波动之间的关联。采用了两种回归模型（固定效应模型和随机系数模型）进行估计。跨国数据分析表明，道路死亡率具有顺周期性，且这种周期性是对称的。基于32个经合组织国家的数据，经济增长平均每增加1%，道路死亡率就会增加1.1%，反之亦然。
