Simulation of oral glucose tolerance tests and the corresponding isoglycemic intravenous glucose infusion studies for calculation of the incretin effect.

The incretin effect, which is a unique stimulus of insulin secretion in response to oral ingestion of nutrients, is calculated by the difference in insulin secretory responses from an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and a corresponding isoglycemic intravenous glucose infusion (IIGI) study. The OGTT model of this study, which is individualized by fitting the glucose profiles during an OGTT, was developed to predict the glucose profile during an IIGI study in the same subject. Also, the model predicts the insulin and incretin profiles during both studies. The incretin effect, estimated by simulation, was compared with that measured by physiologic studies from eight human subjects with normal glucose tolerance, and the result exhibited a good correlation (r > 0.8); the incretin effect from the simulation was 56.5% ± 10.6% while the one from the measured data was 52.5% ± 19.6%. In conclusion, the parameters of the OGTT model have been successfully estimated to predict the profiles of both OGTTs and IIGI studies. Therefore, with glucose data from the OGTT alone, this model could control and predict the physiologic responses, including insulin secretion during OGTTs and IIGI studies, which could eventually eliminate the need for complex and cumbersome IIGI studies in incretin research.