Vanhove Wouter, Surmont Tim, Van Damme Patrick, De Ruyver Brice
Laboratory of Tropical and Subtropical Agriculture and Ethnobotany, Department of Plant Production, Faculty of Bio-Science Engineering, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, 9000 Gent, Belgium.
FCSH - Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Avenida de Berna 26-C, 1069-061 Lisbon, Portugal; Institute for International Research on Criminal Policy, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Faculty of Law, Ghent University, Universiteitstraat 4, 9000 Gent, Belgium.
Int J Drug Policy. 2014 May;25(3):436-43. doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2014.01.020. Epub 2014 Feb 10.
As a result of increased pressure on cannabis cultivation in The Netherlands, the number of confiscated indoor cannabis plantations in Belgium is rising. Although increases are reported for all plantations sizes, half of the seized plantations contain less than 50 plants. In this study, factors and variables that influence costs and benefits of indoor cannabis cultivation are investigated as well as how these costs and benefits vary between different cannabis grower types.
Real-situation data of four growers were used to perform financial analyses. Costs included fixed and variable material costs, as well as opportunity costs. Gross revenue per grow cycle was calculated based on most recent forensic findings for illicit Belgian cannabis plantations and was adjusted for the risk of getting caught. Finally, gross revenues and return on costs (ROC) were calculated over 1 year (4 cycles).
Financial analysis shows that in all cases gross revenues as well as ROC are considerable, even after a single growth cycle. Highest profitability was found for large-scale (600 plants, ROC=6.8) and mid-scale plantations (150 plants, ROC=6.0). However, industrial plantations (23,000 plants, ROC=1.4) and micro-scale plantations (5 plants, ROC=2.8) are also highly remunerative. Shift of police focus away from micro-scale growers, least likely to be involved in criminal gangs, to large-scale and industrial scale plantations would influence costs as a result of changing risks of getting caught. However, sensitivity analysis shows that this does not significantly influence the conclusions on profitability of different types of indoor cannabis growers.
Seizure and confiscation of profits are important elements in the integral and integrated policy approach required for tackling illicit indoor cannabis plantations. The large return of costs evidenced in the present study, underpin the policy relevance of confiscating those illicit profits as part of enforcement.
由于荷兰大麻种植面临的压力增加，比利时被查获的室内大麻种植园数量正在上升。尽管报告显示各类规模的种植园数量均有增加，但被查获的种植园中一半所含植株不到50株。本研究调查了影响室内大麻种植成本和收益的因素及变量，以及这些成本和收益在不同类型大麻种植者之间的差异。
使用四位种植者的实际情况数据进行财务分析。成本包括固定和可变材料成本以及机会成本。每个种植周期的毛收入根据比利时非法大麻种植园的最新法医调查结果计算，并针对被查获的风险进行了调整。最后，计算了一年（4个周期）内的毛收入和成本回报率（ROC）。
财务分析表明，即使在单个生长周期后，所有情况下的毛收入和成本回报率都相当可观。大规模种植园（600株，ROC = 6.8）和中等规模种植园（150株，ROC = 6.0）的盈利能力最高。然而，工业规模种植园（23,000株，ROC = 1.4）和微型种植园（5株，ROC = 2.8）的回报也很高。警方将重点从最不可能参与犯罪团伙的微型种植者转向大规模和工业规模种植园，这将因被查获风险的变化而影响成本。然而，敏感性分析表明，这不会显著影响关于不同类型室内大麻种植者盈利能力的结论。
没收利润是打击非法室内大麻种植所需的综合政策方法中的重要要素。本研究中证明的高成本回报率，支持了将没收这些非法利润作为执法一部分的政策相关性。
