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泰国传统贸易网络中后院鸡流动动态的建模:对禽流感监测与防控的启示

Modeling the dynamics of backyard chicken flows in traditional trade networks in Thailand: implications for surveillance and control of avian influenza.

作者信息

Wiratsudakul Anuwat, Paul Mathilde Cécile, Bicout Dominique Joseph, Tiensin Thanawat, Triampo Wannapong, Chalvet-Monfray Karine

机构信息

The Monitoring and Surveillance Center for Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife and Exotic Animals, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, 999 Phuttamonthon 4 Rd., Salaya, Phuttamonthon, Nakhon Pathom, 73170, Thailand,

出版信息

Trop Anim Health Prod. 2014 Jun;46(5):845-53. doi: 10.1007/s11250-014-0575-8. Epub 2014 Mar 26.

Abstract

In Southeast Asia, traditional poultry marketing chains have been threatened by epidemics caused by the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) virus. In Thailand, the trade of live backyard chickens is based on the activities of traders buying chickens from villages and supplying urban markets with chicken meat. This study aims to quantify the flows of chickens traded during a 1-year period in a province of Thailand. A compartmental stochastic dynamic model was constructed to illustrate trade flows of live chickens from villages to slaughterhouses. Live poultry movements present important temporal variations with increased activities during the 15 days preceding the Chinese New Year and, to a lesser extent, other festivals (Qingming Festival, Thai New Year, Hungry Ghost Festival, and International New Year). The average distance of poultry movements ranges from 4 to 25 km, defining a spatial scale for the risk of avian influenza that spread through traditional poultry marketing chains. Some characteristics of traditional poultry networks in Thailand, such as overlapping chicken supply zones, may facilitate disease diffusion over longer distances through combined expansion and relocation processes. This information may be of use in tailoring avian influenza and other emerging infectious poultry disease surveillance and control programs provided that the cost-effectiveness of such scenarios is also evaluated in further studies.

摘要

在东南亚,传统家禽销售链受到高致病性禽流感H5N1病毒引发的疫情威胁。在泰国,农村散养土鸡的贸易基于商人从村庄收购鸡并向城市市场供应鸡肉的活动。本研究旨在量化泰国某省一年内交易鸡的流动情况。构建了一个分区随机动态模型来说明活鸡从村庄到屠宰场的贸易流动。活禽流动呈现出重要的时间变化,在中国新年之前的15天内活动增加,在较小程度上,其他节日(清明节、泰国新年、中元节和国际新年)期间活动也会增加。家禽流动的平均距离在4至25公里之间,这为通过传统家禽销售链传播的禽流感风险确定了一个空间尺度。泰国传统家禽网络的一些特征,如重叠的鸡肉供应区,可能通过联合扩张和迁移过程促进疾病在更长距离上的传播。如果在进一步研究中也评估了这种情况的成本效益,这些信息可能有助于制定禽流感和其他新出现的家禽传染病监测与控制计划。

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