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一个包含媒体报道时滞的 SIRS 传染病模型。

An SIRS epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay.

机构信息

Department of Applied Mathematics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650093, China ; Department of Mathematics and Information Science, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou, Henan 466001, China.

Department of Applied Mathematics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650093, China.

出版信息

Comput Math Methods Med. 2014;2014:680743. doi: 10.1155/2014/680743. Epub 2014 Mar 3.

Abstract

An SIRS epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay is proposed. The positivity and boundedness are studied firstly. The locally asymptotical stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is studied in succession. And then, the conditions on which periodic orbits bifurcate are given. Furthermore, we show that the local Hopf bifurcation implies the global Hopf bifurcation after the second critical value of the delay. The obtained results show that the time delay in media coverage can not affect the stability of the disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number R 0 < 1. However, when R 0 > 1, the stability of the endemic equilibrium will be affected by the time delay; there will be a family of periodic orbits bifurcating from the endemic equilibrium when the time delay increases through a critical value. Finally, some examples for numerical simulations are also included.

摘要

提出了一个包含媒体报道和时滞的 SIRS 传染病模型。首先研究了正定性和有界性。接着研究了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性。然后,给出了周期轨道分岔的条件。此外,我们表明,局部 Hopf 分支导致了延迟的第二个临界值之后的全局 Hopf 分支。所得结果表明,当基本再生数 R0 < 1 时,媒体报道中的时滞不会影响无病平衡点的稳定性。然而,当 R0 > 1 时,地方病平衡点的稳定性将受到时滞的影响;当通过一个临界值增加时滞时,将从地方病平衡点产生一族周期轨道。最后,还包括了一些数值模拟的例子。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f38/3958770/d9db336609e3/CMMM2014-680743.001.jpg

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