Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
Math Biosci. 2011 Apr;230(2):87-95. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2011.01.005. Epub 2011 Feb 4.
We formulate an SIS epidemic model on two patches. In each patch, media coverage about the cases present in the local population leads individuals to limit the number of contacts they have with others, inducing a reduction in the rate of transmission of the infection. A global qualitative analysis is carried out, showing that the typical threshold behavior holds, with solutions either tending to an equilibrium without disease, or the system being persistent and solutions converging to an endemic equilibrium. Numerical analysis is employed to gain insight in both the analytically tractable and intractable cases; these simulations indicate that media coverage can reduce the burden of the epidemic and shorten the duration of the disease outbreak.
我们构建了一个两斑块的 SIS 传染病模型。在每个斑块中，媒体对当地人群中病例的报道会促使个体限制与他人的接触次数，从而降低感染的传播速度。我们进行了全局定性分析，结果表明存在典型的阈值行为，即要么解趋于无病平衡点，要么系统持续存在，解收敛到地方病平衡点。我们还通过数值分析来深入研究可分析和不可分析的情况；这些模拟表明，媒体报道可以减轻疫情负担并缩短疾病爆发的持续时间。
