Lahey Benjamin B, D'Onofrio Brian M, Van Hulle Carol A, Rathouz Paul J
Department of Health Studies (MC 2007), University of Chicago, 5841 South Maryland Avenue, Chicago, IL, 6063, USA,
J Abnorm Child Psychol. 2014 Nov;42(8):1341-51. doi: 10.1007/s10802-014-9873-x.
Associations among receptive vocabulary measured at 4-9 years, mother-reported childhood conduct problems at 4-9 years, and self-reported adolescent delinquency at 14-17 years were assessed using data from a prospective study of the offspring of a large U.S. nationally representative sample of women. A novel quasi-experimental strategy was used to rule out family-level confounding by estimating path-analytic associations within families in a sibling comparison design. This allowed simultaneous tests of the direct and indirect effects of receptive vocabulary and childhood conduct problems, and of their joint moderation, on adolescent delinquency without family-level environmental confounding. The significant association of receptive vocabulary with later adolescent delinquency was indirect, mediated by childhood conduct problems. Furthermore, a significant interaction between receptive vocabulary and childhood conduct problems reflected a steeper slope for the predictive association between childhood conduct problems and adolescent delinquency when receptive vocabulary scores were higher. These findings of significant indirect association were qualitatively identical in both population-level and within-family analyses, suggesting that they are not the result of family-level confounds.
利用一项针对美国大量具有全国代表性的女性样本后代的前瞻性研究数据，评估了4至9岁时测得的接受性词汇、母亲报告的4至9岁儿童期行为问题以及14至17岁时自我报告的青少年犯罪之间的关联。采用了一种新颖的准实验策略，通过在同胞比较设计中估计家庭内部的路径分析关联来排除家庭层面的混杂因素。这使得能够同时检验接受性词汇和儿童期行为问题对青少年犯罪的直接和间接影响及其联合调节作用，而不存在家庭层面的环境混杂因素。接受性词汇与后期青少年犯罪之间的显著关联是间接的，由儿童期行为问题介导。此外，接受性词汇与儿童期行为问题之间的显著交互作用反映出，当接受性词汇得分较高时，儿童期行为问题与青少年犯罪之间的预测关联斜率更陡。这些显著间接关联的发现，在总体水平分析和家庭内部分析中在性质上是相同的，表明它们不是家庭层面混杂因素的结果。
