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改进国内人口迁移年龄分布的跨国比较措施。

Improved measures for the cross-national comparison of age profiles of internal migration.

作者信息

Bernard Aude, Bell Martin, Charles-Edwards Elin

机构信息

a The University of Queensland.

出版信息

Popul Stud (Camb). 2014;68(2):179-95. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2014.890243. Epub 2014 Apr 29.

Abstract

We develop and demonstrate the application of a concise set of measures intended to encapsulate key features of the age profile of internal migration and highlight the significant differences that exist between nations in these profiles. Model schedules have been the most common method of comparing internal migration patterns but issues related to the estimation and interpretation of their parameters hinder their use for cross-national comparison. We demonstrate that the interpretation of exponential coefficients as rates of ascent and descent does not best reflect the slopes of migration age profiles, and we propose more consistent measures based on the rate of change in migration intensity. We demonstrate, through correlation and factor analysis, that most of the inter-country variance in migration age profiles is captured by the age at and intensity of peak migration. The application of these two indicators to 25 countries reveals significant differences between regions.

摘要

我们开发并展示了一套简洁的测量方法的应用,旨在概括国内人口迁移年龄分布的关键特征,并突出不同国家在这些分布上存在的显著差异。模型时间表一直是比较国内人口迁移模式最常用的方法,但与其参数估计和解释相关的问题阻碍了它们在跨国比较中的应用。我们证明,将指数系数解释为上升和下降速率并不能最好地反映人口迁移年龄分布的斜率,并且我们基于迁移强度的变化率提出了更一致的测量方法。通过相关性和因子分析,我们证明,迁移年龄分布中大多数国家间的差异是由迁移高峰期的年龄和强度所体现的。将这两个指标应用于25个国家,揭示了各地区之间的显著差异。

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