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永葆青春:中国的移民制度与年龄模式。

Forever young: China's migration regime and age patterns.

作者信息

Yang Xiaxia, Chan Kam Wing

机构信息

Lau China Institute, King's College London, London, UK.

Department of Geography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

出版信息

Eurasian Geogr Econ. 2025;66(4-5):469-496. doi: 10.1080/15387216.2023.2279545. Epub 2023 Nov 12.

Abstract

Chinese institutional arrangements, particularly the system, hinder long-term settlement of internal migrants by limiting their access to social benefits. This article proposes a new method for assessing migrant settlement: the use of age data to investigate the link between migrant "flow" and "stock". We contend that migrants' inability to settle mainly derives from two sources: the difficulties in maintaining migrant family togetherness, and the impediments to long-term residence of migrants themselves. Age-related indices were developed to compare China's internal migration with other countries' internal and international migration. The results indicate a "China difference" in migration age patterns - child and elderly dependents of migrant workers are discouraged from migrating, while migrants growing old tend to return to the origins than to remain in the destinations. Consequently, family togetherness and long-term residence in the destinations are often unachievable for migrants. Our analyses highlight China's unique migrant labor regime, where temporary migrant workers are continuously "recycled" to keep destinations' workforce "forever young", reducing production costs of Chinese goods in global markets. Methodologically, our age-based "mobile-to-settled" transition framework and "settlement rate" of migrants in the transition are of value in examining migrant settlement chances more generally, applicable to internal and international migration beyond China.

摘要

中国的制度安排,尤其是户籍制度,通过限制内部移民获得社会福利的机会,阻碍了他们的长期定居。本文提出了一种评估移民定居情况的新方法:利用年龄数据来研究移民“流动”与“存量”之间的联系。我们认为,移民无法定居主要源于两个方面:维持移民家庭团聚的困难,以及移民自身长期居住的障碍。我们开发了与年龄相关的指标,用于将中国的内部移民与其他国家的内部和国际移民进行比较。结果表明,在移民年龄模式上存在“中国差异”——农民工的儿童和老年家属不太愿意迁移,而逐渐变老的移民往往更倾向于返回原籍地,而不是留在目的地。因此,移民往往无法实现家庭团聚和在目的地长期居住。我们的分析凸显了中国独特的农民工制度,即临时农民工不断“循环流动”,以使目的地的劳动力“永远年轻”,从而降低中国商品在全球市场的生产成本。在方法论上,我们基于年龄的“流动到定居”过渡框架以及过渡阶段移民的“定居率”,对于更全面地考察移民的定居机会具有重要价值,适用于中国以外的内部和国际移民情况。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1f51/12308837/e99186eafb96/nihms-2031009-f0001.jpg

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