Xu Zhijing, Zu Zhenghu, Zheng Tao, Zhang Wendou, Xu Qing, Liu Jinjie
Center for Biosecurity Strategy Management, Beijing Institute of Biotechnology, Beijing, P. R. China.
PLoS One. 2014 May 2;9(5):e95911. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0095911. eCollection 2014.
The high incidence of emerging infectious diseases has highlighted the importance of effective immunization strategies, especially the stochastic algorithms based on local available network information. Present stochastic strategies are mainly evaluated based on classical network models, such as scale-free networks and small-world networks, and thus are insufficient. Three frequently referred stochastic immunization strategies-acquaintance immunization, community-bridge immunization, and ring vaccination-were analyzed in this work. The optimal immunization ratios for acquaintance immunization and community-bridge immunization strategies were investigated, and the effectiveness of these three strategies in controlling the spreading of epidemics were analyzed based on realistic social contact networks. The results show all the strategies have decreased the coverage of the epidemics compared to baseline scenario (no control measures). However the effectiveness of acquaintance immunization and community-bridge immunization are very limited, with acquaintance immunization slightly outperforming community-bridge immunization. Ring vaccination significantly outperforms acquaintance immunization and community-bridge immunization, and the sensitivity analysis shows it could be applied to controlling the epidemics with a wide infectivity spectrum. The effectiveness of several classical stochastic immunization strategies was evaluated based on realistic contact networks for the first time in this study. These results could have important significance for epidemic control research and practice.
新发传染病的高发病率凸显了有效免疫策略的重要性,尤其是基于本地可用网络信息的随机算法。目前的随机策略主要基于经典网络模型(如无标度网络和小世界网络)进行评估,因此存在不足。本研究分析了三种常见的随机免疫策略——熟人免疫、社区桥梁免疫和环形疫苗接种。研究了熟人免疫和社区桥梁免疫策略的最佳免疫比例,并基于现实社会接触网络分析了这三种策略在控制疫情传播方面的有效性。结果表明,与基线情景(无控制措施)相比,所有策略都降低了疫情的覆盖范围。然而,熟人免疫和社区桥梁免疫的有效性非常有限,熟人免疫略优于社区桥梁免疫。环形疫苗接种显著优于熟人免疫和社区桥梁免疫,敏感性分析表明它可应用于控制具有广泛感染谱的疫情。本研究首次基于现实接触网络评估了几种经典随机免疫策略的有效性。这些结果对疫情防控研究与实践具有重要意义。