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网络中易感-感染-移除模型下即时检疫措施的效率

Efficiency of prompt quarantine measures on a susceptible-infected-removed model in networks.

作者信息

Hasegawa Takehisa, Nemoto Koji

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Informatics, Ibaraki University, 2-1-1, Bunkyo, Mito 310-8512, Japan.

Department of Physics, Hokkaido University, Kita 10 Nishi 8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810, Japan.

出版信息

Phys Rev E. 2017 Aug;96(2-1):022311. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.96.022311. Epub 2017 Aug 11.

Abstract

This study focuses on investigating the manner in which a prompt quarantine measure suppresses epidemics in networks. A simple and ideal quarantine measure is considered in which an individual is detected with a probability immediately after it becomes infected and the detected one and its neighbors are promptly isolated. The efficiency of this quarantine in suppressing a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is tested in random graphs and uncorrelated scale-free networks. Monte Carlo simulations are used to show that the prompt quarantine measure outperforms random and acquaintance preventive vaccination schemes in terms of reducing the number of infected individuals. The epidemic threshold for the SIR model is analytically derived under the quarantine measure, and the theoretical findings indicate that prompt executions of quarantines are highly effective in containing epidemics. Even if infected individuals are detected with a very low probability, the SIR model under a prompt quarantine measure has finite epidemic thresholds in fat-tailed scale-free networks in which an infected individual can always cause an outbreak of a finite relative size without any measure. The numerical simulations also demonstrate that the present quarantine measure is effective in suppressing epidemics in real networks.

摘要

本研究聚焦于调查快速检疫措施在网络中抑制流行病的方式。考虑一种简单且理想的检疫措施,即个体在感染后立即以一定概率被检测到,且检测到的个体及其邻居会被迅速隔离。在随机图和不相关的无标度网络中测试了这种检疫措施在抑制易感-感染-移除(SIR)模型方面的效率。蒙特卡罗模拟表明,在减少感染个体数量方面,快速检疫措施优于随机和熟人预防性接种方案。在检疫措施下解析得出了SIR模型的流行阈值,理论结果表明迅速执行检疫在控制流行病方面非常有效。即使以非常低的概率检测到感染个体,在无标度网络中,快速检疫措施下的SIR模型也有有限的流行阈值,在这种网络中,如果没有任何措施,一个感染个体总是会引发有限相对规模的疫情爆发。数值模拟还表明,当前的检疫措施在抑制实际网络中的流行病方面是有效的。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f315/7217515/4f66f1d9abb4/e022311_1.jpg

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