Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA; Pediatric Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Seattle Children's Hospital, School of Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lancet. 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):980-1004. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60696-6. Epub 2014 May 2.
BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland. INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
背景:第五个千年发展目标(MDG 5)设定了在 1990 年至 2015 年期间将孕产妇死亡率(每 10 万例活产中的孕产妇死亡数)降低 75%的目标。我们旨在衡量孕产妇死亡率的水平和跟踪其趋势、导致孕产妇死亡的主要原因以及分娩时孕产妇死亡的时间。
方法:我们使用稳健的统计方法,包括死因综合模型(CODEm),分析了一个包含 7065 个地点年份的数据数据库,并估计了 1990 年至 2013 年期间 188 个国家所有原因导致的孕产妇死亡人数。我们根据系统评价,对艾滋病毒阳性妇女在怀孕期间死亡的相对风险进行了估计,以确定因艾滋病毒导致的妊娠相关死亡人数。我们还根据系统评价,对这些死亡人数因妊娠而加剧的部分进行了估计。为了估计 9 种不同原因导致的孕产妇死亡人数,我们从系统评价中确定了 61 个来源和 943 个年份的生命登记数据。我们还对有关孕产妇死亡时间的报告进行了系统评价,确定了 142 个来源,用于我们的分析。我们使用贝叶斯元回归为每个国家/地区估计了 1990-2013 年的数据。我们为所有数值估计了 95%的置信区间(UI)。
结果:2013 年有 292982 例(95%UI 261017-327792)孕产妇死亡,而 1990 年有 376034 例(343483-407574)。从 1990 年至 2003 年,孕产妇死亡率的全球年变化率为-0.3%(-1.1 至 0.6),从 2003 年至 2013 年为-2.7%(-3.9 至-1.5),有持续加速的迹象。1990 年至 2013 年期间,南亚、东亚和东南亚的孕产妇死亡率持续下降,但 20 世纪 90 年代期间,撒哈拉以南非洲的大部分地区孕产妇死亡人数增加。2013 年,与艾滋病毒相关的孕产妇死亡人数为 2070 例(1290-2866),占全球总数的 0.4%(0.2-0.6)。1990 年和 2013 年,孕产妇死亡率最高的年龄组都是最年长的年龄组。2013 年,大多数死亡发生在分娩期或产后。不同地区和 1990 年至 2013 年之间的原因有所不同。我们记录了 2013 年各国孕产妇死亡率的巨大差异,从南苏丹的 956.8(685.1-1262.8)到冰岛的 2.4(1.6-3.6)。
解释:全球变化率表明,到 2015 年,只有 16 个国家将实现千年发展目标 5 目标。自 2000 年千年宣言以来,孕产妇、新生儿和儿童健康的发展援助增加,导致减少速度加快。在 2015 年后设定目标和相关干预措施时,需要仔细考虑进展缓慢的地区,如西非和中非。
资金来源:比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会。
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