Harknett Kristen, Hartnett Caroline Sten
a University of Pennsylvania.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2014;68(3):265-82. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2014.899612. Epub 2014 May 7.
Using data from the 2004 and 2007 waves of the European Social Survey (ESS), we find that for every 100 births intended, about 60 births occur, on average, across 22 countries. This shortfall in fertility masks substantial heterogeneity between subgroups within the populations surveyed. Motherhood status, age, partnership status, and the strength of fertility intentions moderate the relationship between women's childbearing plans and births measured at the country level. Individual-level analyses using data from three countries included in the 2005 and 2008 waves of the Generations and Gender Survey are consistent with our country-level analyses. We demonstrate that repeat cross-sectional data can be used to analyse the correspondence between childbearing plans and births when longitudinal data are lacking.
利用2004年和2007年欧洲社会调查（ESS）的数据，我们发现，在22个国家中，平均而言，每100例预期生育中约有60例实际发生。这种生育不足掩盖了被调查人群中各亚组之间的巨大差异。母亲身份、年龄、伴侣关系状况以及生育意愿的强度调节了国家层面衡量的女性生育计划与生育之间的关系。使用2005年和2008年世代与性别调查中三个国家的数据进行的个体层面分析与我们的国家层面分析一致。我们证明，在缺乏纵向数据时，重复横截面数据可用于分析生育计划与生育之间的对应关系。
