Badolato Luca, Hayford Sarah R, Guzzo Karen Benjamin
Ohio State University, 238 Townshend Hall, 1885 Neil Ave, Columbus, OH 43210 USA.
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 155 Hamilton Hall CB3210, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA.
Genus. 2025;81(1):14. doi: 10.1186/s41118-025-00251-6. Epub 2025 Jun 2.
A growing body of fertility research focuses on uncertainty as a key contributor to fertility decision making and behaviors. In this paper, we identify and describe multiple components of uncertainty in fertility goals that, when analyzed together and in relation to macro-level trends, provide critical insight into fertility dynamics. Drawing from multiple streams of research on fertility goals and behaviors, we focus on (i) , (ii) , and (iii) . We use data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) 2002-2019 to estimate trends and patterns of these three dimensions of uncertainty in fertility goals, with a focus on variation across the life course and inequality by education and income. We link uncertainty in fertility goals with the quantum and timing of fertility intentions among U.S. women. The results show that realization uncertainty is pervasive, with up to 50% of women who intend children being uncertain whether they will actually follow through with those intentions, and intensity of intentions is low, with up to 25% of childless women who intend children saying that they would not be bothered if they did not have a child. Although goal uncertainty is overall stable across the study period, young and childless women show increasing realization uncertainty over time and hold their positive intentions less intensely. More socioeconomically advantaged women exhibit higher realization certainty and greater intensity of their goals. Women who are more certain of realizing their positive intentions and those who hold them more intensely report a higher number of additional intended children and a shorter time frame for future childbearing. We conclude by situating these findings in a broader climate of increasing uncertainty.
越来越多的生育研究聚焦于不确定性，认为它是生育决策和行为的关键因素。在本文中，我们识别并描述了生育目标中不确定性的多个组成部分，当将这些部分放在一起分析并与宏观层面的趋势相关联时，能为生育动态提供关键洞察。借鉴关于生育目标和行为的多方面研究，我们关注（i）、（ii）和（iii）。我们使用2002 - 2019年全国家庭成长调查（NSFG）的数据来估计生育目标中这三个不确定性维度的趋势和模式，重点关注生命历程中的差异以及受教育程度和收入导致的不平等。我们将生育目标的不确定性与美国女性生育意愿的数量和时间联系起来。结果表明，实现不确定性普遍存在，高达50%打算要孩子的女性不确定自己是否真的会付诸行动，而且意愿强度较低，高达25%打算要孩子的无子女女性表示如果没有孩子也不会困扰。尽管目标不确定性在整个研究期间总体稳定，但年轻和无子女女性的实现不确定性随时间增加，且她们的积极意愿强度降低。社会经济地位更优越的女性表现出更高的实现确定性和更强的目标强度。更确定能实现积极意愿且意愿强度更高的女性报告的额外打算生育的孩子数量更多，未来生育的时间框架更短。我们通过将这些发现置于不确定性不断增加的更广泛背景中来得出结论。
