Santana Paula, Peixoto Helena, Duarte Nuno
Centro de Estudos em Geografia e Ordenamento do Território. Grupo de Investigação em Geografia da Saúde. Universidade de Coimbra, Coimbra. Portugal..
Grupo de Investigação em Geografia da Saúde. Universidade de Coimbra. Coimbra. Portugal.
Acta Med Port. 2014 Mar-Apr;27(2):246-51. Epub 2014 Apr 30.
The study modelled the physicians predictable allocation by medical specialty, in the horizon of 2025. It was based on the physicians demographics in Portugal and through the development of different future scenarios.
In the study was developed a Supply Model, which represents the capacity of medical training installed in Portugal, and a Necessity Model that perspective possible futures for the provision of medical professionals.
Each model comprehends several scenarios, according to different context variables (introduction or not of limits to postgraduate training capacity, demographic trends, ratios recommended by Colleges Specialty ...).
DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: The models comparison lead to the conclusion that the training system has the capacity to meet the needs of physicians in all scenarios developed, and it even generates a surplus of medical professionals that may not be absorbed by the healthcare system, in the horizon of 2025.
该研究对2025年之前按医学专业划分的医生可预测分配情况进行了建模。它基于葡萄牙医生的人口统计学数据，并通过制定不同的未来情景来进行。
在该研究中开发了一个供应模型，该模型代表了葡萄牙的医学培训能力，以及一个需求模型，该模型展望了提供医学专业人员的可能未来。
根据不同的背景变量（是否对研究生培训能力设限、人口趋势、各专业学院推荐的比例等），每个模型都包含几种情景。
讨论/结论：模型比较得出的结论是，培训系统有能力满足所制定的所有情景下医生的需求，甚至在2025年之前会产生医疗系统可能无法吸纳的医学专业人员过剩情况。
