Aviv Richard I, Kelly Adam G, Jahromi Babak S, Benesch Curtis G, Young Kate C
Department of medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Division of Neuroradiology Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Department of Neurology, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2014 May 13;9(5):e96496. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0096496. eCollection 2014.
To determine the optimal imaging strategy for ICH incorporating CTA or DSA with and without a NCCT risk stratification algorithm.
A Markov model included costs, outcomes, prevalence of a vascular lesion, and the sensitivity and specificity of a risk stratification algorithm from the literature. The four imaging strategies were: (a) CTA screening of the entire cohort; (b) CTA only in those where NCCT suggested a high or indeterminate likelihood of a lesion; (c) DSA screening of the entire cohort and (d) DSA only for those with a high or indeterminate suspicion of a lesion following NCCT. Branch d was the comparator.
Age of the cohort and the probability of an underlying lesion influenced the choice of optimal imaging strategy. With a low suspicion for a lesion (<12%), branch (a) was the optimal strategy for a willingness-to-pay of $100,000/QALY. Branch (a) remained the optimal strategy in younger people (<35 years) with a risk below 15%. If the probability of a lesion was >15%, branch (b) became preferred strategy. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that branch (b) was the optimal choice 70-72% of the time over varying willingness-to-pay values.
CTA has a clear role in the evaluation of people presenting with ICH, though the choice of CTA everyone or CTA using risk stratification depends on age and likelihood of finding a lesion.
确定将CTA或DSA与有无非增强CT(NCCT)风险分层算法相结合用于脑出血(ICH)的最佳成像策略。
一个马尔可夫模型纳入了成本、结局、血管病变的患病率以及来自文献的风险分层算法的敏感性和特异性。四种成像策略为:(a)对整个队列进行CTA筛查;(b)仅对那些NCCT提示病变可能性高或不确定的患者进行CTA检查;(c)对整个队列进行DSA筛查;(d)仅对NCCT后高度怀疑或怀疑程度不确定的病变患者进行DSA检查。方案d为对照方案。
队列的年龄和潜在病变的概率影响最佳成像策略的选择。对于病变怀疑程度低(<12%)的情况,对于每质量调整生命年(QALY)支付意愿为100,000美元时,方案(a)是最佳策略。在风险低于15%的年轻人(<35岁)中,方案(a)仍然是最佳策略。如果病变概率>15%,方案(b)成为首选策略。概率敏感性分析表明,在不同的支付意愿值下,方案(b)在70 - 72%的时间内是最佳选择。
CTA在评估脑出血患者中具有明确作用,不过对所有人进行CTA检查还是使用风险分层进行CTA检查的选择取决于年龄和发现病变的可能性。