摩托车防抱死制动系统（ABS）在减少事故中的有效性，首次跨国研究。

Effectiveness of motorcycle antilock braking systems (ABS) in reducing crashes, the first cross-national study.

机构信息

a Folksam Research and Chalmers University of Technology , Stockholm , Sweden.

出版信息

Traffic Inj Prev. 2015;16(2):177-83. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2014.927575.

DOI:10.1080/15389588.2014.927575

PMID:24884403

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

This study set out to evaluate the effectiveness of motorcycle antilock braking systems (ABS) in reducing real-life crashes. Since the European Parliament has voted on legislation making ABS mandatory on all new motorcycles over 125 cc from 2016, the fitment rate in Europe is likely to increase in the coming years. Though previous research has focused on mostly large displacement motorcycles, this study used police reports from Spain (2006-2009), Italy (2009), and Sweden (2003-2012) in order to analyze a wide range of motorcycles, including scooters, and compare countries with different motorcycling habits.

METHODS

The statistical analysis used odds ratio calculations with an induced exposure approach. Previous research found that head-on crashes were the least ABS-affected crash type and was therefore used as the nonsensitive crash type for ABS in these calculations. The same motorcycle models, with and without ABS, were compared and the calculations were carried out for each country separately. Crashes involving only scooters were further analyzed.

RESULTS

The effectiveness of motorcycle ABS in reducing injury crashes ranged from 24% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12-36) in Italy to 29% (95% CI, 20-38) in Spain, and 34% (95% CI, 16-52) in Sweden. The reductions in severe and fatal crashes were even greater, at 34% (95% CI, 24-44) in Spain and 42% (95% CI, 23-61) in Sweden. The overall reductions of crashes involving ABS-equipped scooters (at least 250 cc) were 27% (95% CI, 12-42) in Italy and 22% (95% CI, 2-42) in Spain. ABS on scooters with at least a 250 cc engine reduced severe and fatal crashes by 31% (95% CI, 12-50), based on Spanish data alone.

CONCLUSIONS

At this stage, there is more than sufficient scientific-based evidence to support the implementation of ABS on all motorcycles, even light ones. Further research should aim at understanding the injury mitigating effects of motorcycle ABS, possibly in combination with combined braking systems.

摘要

目的

本研究旨在评估摩托车防抱死制动系统（ABS）在减少实际碰撞中的有效性。由于欧洲议会已投票通过立法，规定从 2016 年起，所有排量超过 125cc 的新摩托车都必须配备 ABS，因此未来几年欧洲的配备率可能会增加。尽管之前的研究主要集中在大排量摩托车上，但本研究使用了来自西班牙（2006-2009 年）、意大利（2009 年）和瑞典（2003-2012 年）的警方报告，以分析包括踏板车在内的各种摩托车，并比较具有不同骑行习惯的国家。

方法

统计分析采用比值比计算和诱导暴露方法。先前的研究发现，正面碰撞是受 ABS 影响最小的碰撞类型，因此在这些计算中，将其用作 ABS 的非敏感碰撞类型。对配备和未配备 ABS 的相同摩托车模型进行比较，并分别对每个国家进行计算。进一步分析仅涉及踏板车的碰撞。

结果

摩托车 ABS 减少受伤事故的有效性范围从意大利的 24%（95%置信区间[CI]，12-36）到西班牙的 29%（95% CI，20-38），再到瑞典的 34%（95% CI，16-52）。严重和致命事故的减少更为显著，在西班牙为 34%（95% CI，24-44），在瑞典为 42%（95% CI，23-61）。配备 ABS 的踏板车（至少 250cc）的事故总体减少了 27%（95% CI，12-42），在意大利和 22%（95% CI，2-42）在西班牙。仅基于西班牙的数据，配备至少 250cc 发动机的踏板车 ABS 可将严重和致命事故减少 31%（95% CI，12-50）。