Tobías Aurelio, Armstrong Ben, Gasparrini Antonio, Diaz Julio
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), C/Jordi Girona 18-26, Barcelona 08031, Spain.
Environ Health. 2014 Jun 9;13(1):48. doi: 10.1186/1476-069X-13-48.
Periods of high temperature have been widely found to be associated with excess mortality but with variable relationships in different cities. How these specifics depend on climatic and other characteristics of cities is not well understood. We assess summer temperature-mortality relationships using data from 50 provincial capitals in Spain, during the period 1990-2004.
Poisson time series regression analyses were applied to daily temperature and mortality data, adjusting for potential confounding seasonal factors. Associations of heat with mortality were summarised for each city as the risk increments at the 99th compared to the 90th percentiles of the whole-year temperature distributions, as predicted from spline curves.
Risk increments averaged 14.6% between both centiles, or 3.3% per 1 Celsius degree. Although risk increments varied substantially between cities, the range of temperature from the 90th to 99th centile was the only characteristic independently significantly associated with them. The heat increment did not depend on other city climatic, socio-demographic and geographic determinants.
Cities in Spain are partially adapted to high mean summer temperatures but not to high variation in summer temperatures.
高温时段已被广泛发现与超额死亡率相关，但在不同城市中这种关系存在差异。这些具体情况如何取决于城市的气候和其他特征尚不清楚。我们利用1990年至2004年期间西班牙50个省会城市的数据评估夏季温度与死亡率的关系。
将泊松时间序列回归分析应用于每日温度和死亡率数据，并对潜在的混杂季节性因素进行调整。每个城市中高温与死亡率的关联以全年温度分布第99百分位数与第90百分位数相比的风险增量来总结，这是根据样条曲线预测得出的。
两个百分位数之间的风险增量平均为14.6%，即每1摄氏度为3.3%。尽管不同城市间风险增量差异很大，但第90至第99百分位数的温度范围是唯一与之独立显著相关的特征。高温增量并不取决于其他城市气候、社会人口统计学和地理决定因素。
西班牙的城市部分适应了夏季较高的平均温度，但未适应夏季温度的较大变化。
