Shao Bob Siyuan, Guindani Michele, Boyd Douglas D
Aviat Space Environ Med. 2014 Jun;85(6):631-7. doi: 10.3357/asem.3863.2014.
The fatality rate for general aviation, 82 times that of air carriers and even higher for those involving aeromedical transportation, has not declined over time. Although noncommercial (private) pilots are increasingly seeking the instrument rating (IFR), which offers safety advantages, there is a paucity of research on causes of fatal crashes for this aviator subset.
The NTSB accident database was queried for general aviation fatal accidents involving private pilots. Exact two sample proportions, linear regression model outcomes (log-odds), and Poisson rate ratio tests were used for statistical analysis.
The fatal accident rate for flights in instrument conditions decreased 55% over 10 yr (2002-2011) although an increased fatality rate was evident for pilots > 65 yr of age. Instrument approach deficiency (lAD), spatial disorientation/failure to maintain control (SD/FMC), and failure to maintain obstacle/terrain clearance (FMOTC) were common causes of fatal accidents in reduced visibility. However a > 55% decline in fatal accidents due to IAD was evident over the decade. Under visual conditions, engine/air-frame malfunction, aerodynamic stall, and FMOTC represented frequent causes. Of these, FMOTC showed a statistically significant decline over 10 yr. Comparing day and night operations, fatal crashes attributed to FMOTC and IAD were more frequent at night.
For the IFR-rated private pilot, our study argues for an emphasis on training and currency in SD/FMC and aerodynamic stall recovery. Likewise training to remedy IAD, the frequent cause of fatal night accidents, and flying by instrument flight rules to assure obstacle/terrain clearance should be encouraged for pilots undertaking such operations.
通用航空的死亡率是航空承运人死亡率的82倍，而涉及航空医疗运输的死亡率甚至更高，且长期以来并未下降。尽管非商业（私人）飞行员越来越多地寻求仪表等级（IFR），这具有安全优势，但针对这一飞行员群体致命坠机原因的研究却很少。
查询美国国家运输安全委员会（NTSB）事故数据库中涉及私人飞行员的通用航空致命事故。采用精确双样本比例、线性回归模型结果（对数几率）和泊松率比检验进行统计分析。
在仪表飞行条件下的航班致命事故率在10年（2002 - 2011年）内下降了55%，尽管65岁以上飞行员的死亡率有所上升。仪表进近缺陷（IAD）、空间定向障碍/未能保持控制（SD/FMC）以及未能保持与障碍物/地形的安全距离（FMOTC）是能见度降低时致命事故的常见原因。然而，在这十年间，因IAD导致的致命事故明显下降了55%以上。在目视飞行条件下，发动机/机身故障、气动失速和FMOTC是常见原因。其中，FMOTC在10年内呈现出统计学上的显著下降。比较白天和夜间飞行操作，归因于FMOTC和IAD的致命坠机事故在夜间更为频繁。
对于持有IFR等级的私人飞行员，我们的研究主张应着重加强在SD/FMC和气动失速恢复方面的训练及熟练度保持。同样，对于进行此类操作的飞行员，应鼓励开展针对性训练以纠正IAD（夜间致命事故的常见原因），并按照仪表飞行规则飞行以确保与障碍物/地形保持安全距离。
