Brinks R, Fischer-Betz R, Sander O, Richter J G, Chehab G, Schneider M
Policlinic of Rheumatology, Heinrich-Heine-University, Düsseldorf, Germany Institute for Biometry and Epidemiology at the German Diabetes Center, Düsseldorf, Germany
Policlinic of Rheumatology, Heinrich-Heine-University, Düsseldorf, Germany.
Lupus. 2014 Nov;23(13):1407-11. doi: 10.1177/0961203314540352. Epub 2014 Jun 13.
The objective of this report is to estimate the prevalence and future number of cases of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Germany.
Data from a representative sample of all insurants from the statutory health insurance in Germany comprising more than 2.3 million individuals have been screened for SLE diagnoses. The gender- and age-specific prevalence of SLE is calculated. The case definition is based on at least one recorded diagnosis of SLE during 2002. The stratum-specific prevalence is applied to the current and the future population of Germany in order to estimate and predict the number of people with SLE until 2030.
The overall prevalence of diagnosed SLE in 2002 was 15.4 (95% CI: 13.1-17.9) and 55.4 (51.4, 59.8) per 100,000 in the male and female German population. This corresponds to an estimated 30,000 and 31,000 people with diagnosed SLE in 2002 and 2010, respectively. This number will slightly increase until 2020 and decrease thereafter.
Compared with health insurance data from France, the prevalence in our data is similar. Under the assumption that the gender- and age-specific prevalence of SLE in Germany will not change considerably, the number of cases in the next two decades will change only slightly.
本报告旨在估算德国系统性红斑狼疮（SLE）的患病率及未来病例数。
对来自德国法定健康保险的超过230万参保人员的代表性样本数据进行SLE诊断筛查。计算SLE的性别和年龄特异性患病率。病例定义基于2002年期间至少一次记录的SLE诊断。将特定分层的患病率应用于德国当前和未来人口，以估计和预测到2030年SLE患者的数量。
2002年德国男性和女性人群中确诊SLE的总体患病率分别为每10万人15.4（95%可信区间：13.1 - 17.9）和55.4（51.4，59.8）。这分别对应于2002年和2010年估计的30,000例和31,000例确诊SLE患者。这一数字在2020年前将略有增加，之后会下降。
与法国的健康保险数据相比，我们数据中的患病率相似。假设德国SLE的性别和年龄特异性患病率不会有显著变化，未来二十年的病例数只会略有变化。
