Singapore Eye Research Institute, Singapore National Eye Centre, Singapore; Department of Ophthalmology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore.
Singapore Eye Research Institute, Singapore National Eye Centre, Singapore; Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Ophthalmology. 2014 Nov;121(11):2081-90. doi: 10.1016/j.ophtha.2014.05.013. Epub 2014 Jun 26.
PURPOSE: Glaucoma is the leading cause of global irreversible blindness. Present estimates of global glaucoma prevalence are not up-to-date and focused mainly on European ancestry populations. We systematically examined the global prevalence of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) and primary angle-closure glaucoma (PACG), and projected the number of affected people in 2020 and 2040. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. PARTICIPANTS: Data from 50 population-based studies (3770 POAG cases among 140,496 examined individuals and 786 PACG cases among 112 398 examined individuals). METHODS: We searched PubMed, Medline, and Web of Science for population-based studies of glaucoma prevalence published up to March 25, 2013. Hierarchical Bayesian approach was used to estimate the pooled glaucoma prevalence of the population aged 40-80 years along with 95% credible intervals (CrIs). Projections of glaucoma were estimated based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. Bayesian meta-regression models were performed to assess the association between the prevalence of POAG and the relevant factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and projection numbers of glaucoma cases. RESULTS: The global prevalence of glaucoma for population aged 40-80 years is 3.54% (95% CrI, 2.09-5.82). The prevalence of POAG is highest in Africa (4.20%; 95% CrI, 2.08-7.35), and the prevalence of PACG is highest in Asia (1.09%; 95% CrI, 0.43-2.32). In 2013, the number of people (aged 40-80 years) with glaucoma worldwide was estimated to be 64.3 million, increasing to 76.0 million in 2020 and 111.8 million in 2040. In the Bayesian meta-regression model, men were more likely to have POAG than women (odds ratio [OR], 1.36; 95% CrI, 1.23-1.52), and after adjusting for age, gender, habitation type, response rate, and year of study, people of African ancestry were more likely to have POAG than people of European ancestry (OR, 2.80; 95% CrI, 1.83-4.06), and people living in urban areas were more likely to have POAG than those in rural areas (OR, 1.58; 95% CrI, 1.19-2.04). CONCLUSIONS: The number of people with glaucoma worldwide will increase to 111.8 million in 2040, disproportionally affecting people residing in Asia and Africa. These estimates are important in guiding the designs of glaucoma screening, treatment, and related public health strategies.
目的：青光眼是全球不可逆转失明的主要原因。目前对全球青光眼患病率的估计并不最新，主要集中在欧洲血统人群上。我们系统地研究了原发性开角型青光眼（POAG）和原发性闭角型青光眼（PACG）的全球患病率，并预测了 2020 年和 2040 年的患病人数。
设计：系统综述和荟萃分析。
参与者：来自 50 项基于人群的研究的数据（在 140496 名接受检查的个体中发现 3770 例 POAG 病例，在 112398 名接受检查的个体中发现 786 例 PACG 病例）。
方法：我们检索了 PubMed、Medline 和 Web of Science 中截至 2013 年 3 月 25 日发表的基于人群的青光眼患病率研究。使用分层贝叶斯方法估计了 40-80 岁人群的青光眼总患病率以及 95%可信区间（CrI）。基于联合国世界人口展望，对青光眼的发病情况进行了预测。采用贝叶斯元回归模型来评估 POAG 患病率与相关因素之间的关系。
主要观察指标：青光眼的患病率和预测发病数。
结果：40-80 岁人群的全球青光眼患病率为 3.54%（95%CrI，2.09-5.82）。非洲的 POAG 患病率最高（4.20%；95%CrI，2.08-7.35），而亚洲的 PACG 患病率最高（1.09%；95%CrI，0.43-2.32）。2013 年，全球预计有 6430 万人（40-80 岁）患有青光眼，到 2020 年将增加到 7600 万人，到 2040 年将增加到 1.118 亿人。在贝叶斯元回归模型中，男性比女性更容易患 POAG（比值比[OR]，1.36；95%CrI，1.23-1.52），调整年龄、性别、居住类型、应答率和研究年份后，非洲血统的人比欧洲血统的人更容易患 POAG（OR，2.80；95%CrI，1.83-4.06），居住在城市的人比居住在农村的人更容易患 POAG（OR，1.58；95%CrI，1.19-2.04）。
结论：到 2040 年，全球青光眼患者人数将增加到 1.118 亿，亚洲和非洲的患者人数将不成比例地增加。这些估计结果对于指导青光眼筛查、治疗和相关公共卫生策略的设计具有重要意义。
Br J Ophthalmol. 2016-1
Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2021-7-19
Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2022-6-10
Lancet Glob Health. 2017-10-11
Ophthalmol Sci. 2025-7-5
Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2025-9-2
Graefes Arch Clin Exp Ophthalmol. 2025-9-1
Zotero 插件