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动脉瘤性蛛网膜下腔出血:1988 - 2010年美国与太阳活动的关系

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: relationship to solar activity in the United States, 1988-2010.

作者信息

Rosenbaum Benjamin P, Weil Robert J

机构信息

1 Department of Neurosurgery, Neurological Institute, Cleveland Clinic , Cleveland, Ohio.

出版信息

Astrobiology. 2014 Jul;14(7):568-76. doi: 10.1089/ast.2014.1138. Epub 2014 Jun 30.

DOI:10.1089/ast.2014.1138
PMID:24979701
Abstract

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a common condition treated by neurosurgeons. The inherent variability in the incidence and presentation of ruptured cerebral aneurysms has been investigated in association with seasonality, circadian rhythm, lunar cycle, and climate factors. We aimed to identify an association between solar activity (solar flux and sunspots) and the incidence of aneurysmal SAH, all of which appear to behave in periodic fashions over long time periods. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) provided longitudinal, retrospective data on patients hospitalized with SAH in the United States, from 1988 to 2010, who underwent aneurysmal clipping or coiling. Solar activity and SAH incidence data were modeled with the cosinor methodology and a 10-year periodic cycle length. The NIS database contained 32,281 matching hospitalizations from 1988 to 2010. The acrophase (time point in the cycle of highest amplitude) for solar flux and for sunspots were coincident. The acrophase for aneurysmal SAH incidence was out of phase with solar activity determined by non-overlapping 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Aneurysmal SAH incidence peaks appear to be delayed behind solar activity peaks by 64 months (95% CI; 56-73 months) when using a modeled 10-year periodic cycle. Solar activity (solar flux and sunspots) appears to be associated with the incidence of aneurysmal SAH. As solar activity reaches a relative maximum, the incidence of aneurysmal SAH reaches a relative minimum. These observations may help identify future trends in aneurysmal SAH on a population basis.

摘要

动脉瘤性蛛网膜下腔出血(SAH)是神经外科医生治疗的常见病症。已对破裂脑动脉瘤发病率和表现的内在变异性与季节性、昼夜节律、月周期和气候因素的关系进行了研究。我们旨在确定太阳活动(太阳通量和太阳黑子)与动脉瘤性SAH发病率之间的关联,所有这些在长时间内似乎都呈周期性变化。全国住院患者样本(NIS)提供了1988年至2010年在美国因SAH住院并接受动脉瘤夹闭或栓塞治疗患者的纵向回顾性数据。采用余弦分析法和10年周期长度对太阳活动和SAH发病率数据进行建模。NIS数据库包含1988年至2010年32281例匹配的住院病例。太阳通量和太阳黑子的高峰期(周期中振幅最高的时间点)是一致的。动脉瘤性SAH发病率的高峰期与由非重叠95%置信区间(CI)确定的太阳活动不同步。当使用建模的10年周期时,动脉瘤性SAH发病率峰值似乎比太阳活动峰值延迟64个月(95%CI;56 - 73个月)。太阳活动(太阳通量和太阳黑子)似乎与动脉瘤性SAH的发病率相关。随着太阳活动达到相对最大值,动脉瘤性SAH的发病率达到相对最小值。这些观察结果可能有助于从人群角度识别动脉瘤性SAH未来的趋势。

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