Hu Yi, Gao Jie, Chi Meina, Luo Can, Lynn Henry, Sun Liqian, Tao Bo, Wang Decheng, Zhang Zhijie, Jiang Qingwu
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Biomedical Statistical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Shandong Institute of Prevention and Control for Endemic Disease, Jinan, China; Shanghai Institute of Occupational Disease for Chemical Industry, Shanghai, China; Department of Environmental Art and Architecture, Changsha Environmental Protection Vocational Technical College, Changsha, China; Xingzi Station for Schitosomiasis Prevention and Control, Jiangxi Province, China; Medical Science College, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, China.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Biomedical Statistical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Shandong Institute of Prevention and Control for Endemic Disease, Jinan, China; Shanghai Institute of Occupational Disease for Chemical Industry, Shanghai, China; Department of Environmental Art and Architecture, Changsha Environmental Protection Vocational Technical College, Changsha, China; Xingzi Station for Schitosomiasis Prevention and Control, Jiangxi Province, China; Medical Science College, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, China
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2014 Sep;91(3):547-54. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.14-0251. Epub 2014 Jun 30.
The progress of the integrated control policy for schistosomiasis implemented since 2005 in China, which is aiming at reducing the roles of bovines and humans as infection sources, may be challenged by persistent presence of infected snails in lake and marshland areas. Based on annual parasitologic data for schistosomiasis during 2004-2011 in Xingzi County, a spatio-temporal kriging model was used to investigate the spatio-temporal pattern of schistosomiasis risk. Results showed that environmental factors related to snail habitats can explain the spatio-temporal variation of schistosomiasis. Predictive maps of schistosomiasis risk illustrated that clusters of the disease fluctuated during 2004-2008; there was an extensive outbreak in 2008 and attenuated disease occurrences afterwards. An area with an annually constant cluster of schistosomiasis was identified. Our study suggests that targeting snail habitats located within high-risk areas for schistosomiasis would be an economic and sustainable way of schistosomiasis control in the future.
自2005年以来中国实施的以减少牛和人作为传染源作用为目标的血吸虫病综合防治政策进展，可能受到湖泊和沼泽地区感染性钉螺持续存在的挑战。基于2004 - 2011年星子县血吸虫病年度寄生虫学数据，采用时空克里金模型研究血吸虫病风险的时空格局。结果表明，与钉螺栖息地相关的环境因素可解释血吸虫病的时空变异。血吸虫病风险预测图显示，2004 - 2008年该病聚集区波动；20世纪80年代有一次广泛的暴发，之后发病情况减弱。确定了一个血吸虫病年度聚集情况稳定的区域。我们的研究表明，针对血吸虫病高风险区域内的钉螺栖息地将是未来血吸虫病防治的一种经济且可持续的方法。
