Joesoef M R, Remington P L, Jiptoherijanto P T
Division of Chronic Disease Control, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, Georgia 30333.
Int J Epidemiol. 1989 Mar;18(1):174-9. doi: 10.1093/ije/18.1.174.
An epidemiological model of tuberculosis, based on the natural history of tuberculosis and the control programmes in Indonesia, was constructed. This model was used for estimating future tuberculosis-prevented cases and costs for three treatment strategies--the 100% standard course, the 100% short course, and the existing strategy (a combination of 65% standard course and 35% short course)--in accordance with the master plan of the Indonesian Government's tuberculosis control programme. A cost-effectiveness analysis of the three strategies confirmed that the short-course strategy was the most cost-effective. Sensitivity analysis, which applied a broad range of parameters, continued to confirm the short-course strategy as the most cost-effective. If the short-course strategy had been applied in 1980 instead of the existing strategy (using the most likely parameters), the short-course strategy would prevent 1.8 million sputum-positive cases and would save 61.0 million dollars by the year 2000.
基于结核病的自然史和印度尼西亚的控制规划，构建了一个结核病流行病学模型。该模型用于根据印度尼西亚政府结核病控制规划的总体计划，估算三种治疗策略（100%标准疗程、100%短程疗法和现有策略，即65%标准疗程与35%短程疗法的组合）未来预防的结核病病例数和成本。对这三种策略的成本效益分析证实，短程疗法策略是最具成本效益的。应用广泛参数的敏感性分析继续证实短程疗法策略是最具成本效益的。如果在1980年采用短程疗法策略而非现有策略（使用最可能的参数），到2000年，短程疗法策略将预防180万痰涂片阳性病例，并节省6100万美元。
