Hoeymans Nancy, Harbers Maartje M, Hilderink Henk B M
Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu, Centrum Gezondheid en Maatschappij, Bilthoven.
Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 2014;158:A7819.
The Dutch Public Health Status and Foresight report 2014 explores the future of public health in the Netherlands, using a trend scenario and four future scenarios. The trend scenario provides projections until 2030, based on the trends over the last decades and assuming the policy stays the same. After many years the unfavourable trends in lifestyle seem to have ended: the percentage of smokers is decreasing and the percentage of people who are overweight is no longer increasing. Life expectancy will continue to increase, but the differences between socioeconomic groups will not become smaller. Demographic changes (rise in the ageing population) and improvements in health care will contribute to an increase in the number of chronically ill which will increase from 5.3 million in 2011 to 7 million in 2030. However, most people with a chronic disease feel healthy, have no disabilities and participate fully in society. Health care expenditures rose from 9.5% of the GDP in 2000 to 14% in 2012. How this growth will continue in the next years is uncertain.
《2014年荷兰公共卫生状况与展望报告》运用一种趋势情景和四种未来情景，探究了荷兰公共卫生的未来。趋势情景基于过去几十年的趋势并假设政策保持不变，给出了直至2030年的预测。多年来，不良生活方式趋势似乎已经结束：吸烟者比例在下降，超重人群比例不再上升。预期寿命将继续提高，但社会经济群体之间的差异不会缩小。人口结构变化（老年人口增加）和医疗保健改善将导致慢性病患者数量增加，从2011年的530万增至2030年的700万。然而，大多数慢性病患者感觉健康，没有残疾，并且充分参与社会。医疗保健支出从2000年占国内生产总值的9.5%升至2012年的14%。未来几年这种增长将如何持续尚不确定。
