Genton Céline, Pierre Amandine, Cristescu Romane, Lévréro Florence, Gatti Sylvain, Pierre Jean-Sébastien, Ménard Nelly, Le Gouar Pascaline
UMR 6553, ECOBIO: Ecosystems, Biodiversity, Evolution, CNRS/University of Rennes 1, Station Biologique de Paimpont, 35380, Paimpont, France.
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW, 2052, Australia.
J Anim Ecol. 2015 Jan;84(1):166-76. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12268. Epub 2014 Jul 24.
Emerging infectious diseases can induce rapid changes in population dynamics and threaten population persistence. In socially structured populations, the transfers of individuals between social units, for example, from breeding groups to non-breeding groups, shape population dynamics. We suggest that diseases may affect these crucial transfers. We aimed to determine how disturbance by an emerging disease affects demographic rates of gorillas, especially transfer rates within populations and immigration rates into populations. We compared social dynamics and key demographic parameters in a gorilla population affected by Ebola using a long-term observation data set including pre-, during and post-outbreak periods. We also studied a population of undetermined epidemiological status in order to assess whether this population was affected by the disease. We developed a multistate model that can handle transition between social units while optimizing the number of states. During the Ebola outbreak, social dynamics displayed increased transfers from a breeding to a non-breeding status for both males and females. Six years after the outbreak, demographic and most of social dynamics parameters had returned to their initial rates, suggesting a certain resilience in the response to disruption. The formation of breeding groups increased just after Ebola, indicating that environmental conditions were still attractive. However, population recovery was likely delayed because compensatory immigration was probably impeded by the potential impact of Ebola in the surrounding areas. The population of undetermined epidemiological status behaved similarly to the other population before Ebola. Our results highlight the need to integrate social dynamics in host-population demographic models to better understand the role of social structure in the sensitivity and the response to disease disturbances.
新发传染病可导致种群动态迅速变化，并威胁种群的持续存在。在具有社会结构的种群中，个体在社会单元之间的转移，例如从繁殖群体转移到非繁殖群体，塑造了种群动态。我们认为疾病可能会影响这些关键的转移。我们旨在确定一种新发疾病造成的干扰如何影响大猩猩的种群统计学率，尤其是种群内部的转移率和迁入种群的移民率。我们使用一个长期观测数据集，比较了受埃博拉影响的大猩猩种群的社会动态和关键种群统计学参数，该数据集包括疫情爆发前、期间和之后的时期。我们还研究了一个流行病学状况未明的种群，以评估该种群是否受到了这种疾病的影响。我们开发了一个多状态模型，该模型可以处理社会单元之间的转变，同时优化状态数量。在埃博拉疫情期间，社会动态显示，雄性和雌性从繁殖状态向非繁殖状态的转移都有所增加。疫情爆发六年后，种群统计学和大多数社会动态参数已恢复到初始水平，这表明在应对干扰方面具有一定的恢复力。埃博拉疫情刚结束后，繁殖群体的形成有所增加，这表明环境条件仍然具有吸引力。然而，种群恢复可能延迟了，因为埃博拉在周边地区的潜在影响可能阻碍了补偿性移民。流行病学状况未明的种群在埃博拉疫情之前的表现与其他种群相似。我们的研究结果凸显了将社会动态纳入宿主种群统计学模型的必要性，以便更好地理解社会结构在对疾病干扰的敏感性和应对中的作用。
