Hu ShanLian, Shi Qiang, Chen Chieh-I, Caldwell Ronald, Wang Bruce, Du LiXia, He JiangJiang, Roberts Craig S
School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, P.R. China; Shanghai Health Development Research Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.
Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Pfizer Investment Co. Ltd, Shanghai, P.R. China.
Int J Infect Dis. 2014 Sep;26:116-22. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2014.04.012. Epub 2014 Jul 4.
The goal of this study was to provide a comprehensive analysis of the potential health impact of universal vaccination of infants with the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in China.
A decision-analytic model designed for pneumococcal disease and outcomes of pneumococcal infection was populated with local age-specific incidence and mortality data to estimate the expected health benefits of vaccinating birth cohorts of approximately 16 million infants per year over a 10-year time horizon in China. The model incorporates both the direct impact on vaccinated children and the indirect effect of herd protection on unvaccinated children and adults.
The model predicts that more than 16.2 million cases of pneumococcal disease and 709 411 deaths could be prevented in China over the initial 10-year period following the introduction of the PCV7 vaccine. The majority of these health benefits are due to the indirect effectiveness of the vaccine on the unvaccinated population, resulting in approximately 10.8 million cases prevented and 636 371 lives saved over 10 years.
The results suggest that a policy of universal PCV7 vaccination among infants in China would have a substantial positive public health impact on the population of China.
本研究的目的是全面分析在中国对婴儿普遍接种7价肺炎球菌结合疫苗（PCV7）可能产生的健康影响。
利用中国当地按年龄划分的发病率和死亡率数据，构建一个针对肺炎球菌疾病和肺炎球菌感染结局的决策分析模型，以估计在10年时间内，每年为约1600万婴儿的出生队列接种疫苗所带来的预期健康益处。该模型纳入了对已接种疫苗儿童的直接影响以及群体免疫对未接种疫苗儿童和成人的间接影响。
该模型预测，在中国引入PCV7疫苗后的最初10年期间，可预防超过1620万例肺炎球菌疾病和709411例死亡。这些健康益处大部分归因于疫苗对未接种人群的间接效力，在10年内可预防约1080万例病例并挽救636371条生命。
结果表明，在中国对婴儿普遍接种PCV7疫苗的政策将对中国人口产生重大的积极公共卫生影响。
