Rapacz Marcin, Ergon Ashild, Höglind Mats, Jørgensen Marit, Jurczyk Barbara, Ostrem Liv, Rognli Odd Arne, Tronsmo Anne Marte
University of Agriculture in Kraków, Faculty of Agriculture and Economics, Department of Plant Physiology, ul. Podłużna 3, 30-239 Kraków, Poland.
Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Department of Plant Sciences, Box 5003, N-1432 Ås, Norway.
Plant Sci. 2014 Aug;225:34-44. doi: 10.1016/j.plantsci.2014.05.009. Epub 2014 May 27.
The increase in surface temperature of the Earth indicates a lower risk of exposure for temperate grassland and crop to extremely low temperatures. However, the risk of low winter survival rate, especially in higher latitudes may not be smaller, due to complex interactions among different environmental factors. For example, the frequency, degree and length of extreme winter warming events, leading to snowmelt during winter increased, affecting the risks of anoxia, ice encasement and freezing of plants not covered with snow. Future climate projections suggest that cold acclimation will occur later in autumn, under shorter photoperiod and lower light intensity, which may affect the energy partitioning between the elongation growth, accumulation of organic reserves and cold acclimation. Rising CO2 levels may also disturb the cold acclimation process. Predicting problems with winter pathogens is also very complex, because climate change may greatly influence the pathogen population and because the plant resistance to these pathogens is increased by cold acclimation. All these factors, often with contradictory effects on winter survival, make plant overwintering viability under future climates an open question. Close cooperation between climatologists, ecologists, plant physiologists, geneticists and plant breeders is strongly required to predict and prevent possible problems.
地球表面温度的升高表明温带草原和农作物遭受极低温度的风险降低。然而，由于不同环境因素之间的复杂相互作用，冬季存活率低的风险，尤其是在高纬度地区，可能并不会更小。例如，极端冬季变暖事件的频率、程度和持续时间增加，导致冬季融雪增多，影响了未被雪覆盖植物的缺氧、被冰包裹和冻结的风险。未来气候预测表明，秋季冷驯化将在更短的光周期和更低的光照强度下更晚发生，这可能会影响伸长生长、有机储备积累和冷驯化之间的能量分配。二氧化碳水平的上升也可能扰乱冷驯化过程。预测冬季病原体问题也非常复杂，因为气候变化可能会极大地影响病原体种群，而且植物对这些病原体的抗性会因冷驯化而增强。所有这些因素，往往对冬季存活产生相互矛盾的影响，使得未来气候条件下植物的越冬能力成为一个悬而未决的问题。强烈需要气候学家、生态学家、植物生理学家、遗传学家和植物育种家之间密切合作，以预测和预防可能出现的问题。
