战略情报中预测的准确性。
Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence.
作者信息
Mandel David R, Barnes Alan
机构信息
Socio-Cognitive Systems Section, Defence Research and Development Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada M3K 2C9; and
Formerly of the Intelligence Assessment Secretariat, Privy Council Office, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A OA3.
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Jul 29;111(30):10984-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1406138111. Epub 2014 Jul 14.
The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4-0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement.
对从情报报告中提取的1514份战略情报预测的准确性进行了评估。结果表明，预测的区分度和校准度都非常好。高级（相对于初级）分析师以及较容易（相对于较难）的预测的区分度更好。校准错误主要是由于信心不足，即分析师在其较高的区分度水平下分配了比所需更多的不确定性。对于较难（相对于较容易）的预测以及对于政策决策被认为更（相对于较不）重要的预测，信心不足更为明显。尽管观察到信心不足，但在信息量最少的0.4 - 0.6概率范围内预测很少。重新校准预测大幅降低了信心不足。这些发现为对战略情报预测准确性持适度乐观态度提供了理由，并表明情报生产者旨在提高信息量同时避免夸大。
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