中年肥胖率上升将使未来痴呆症的患病率恶化。
Rising midlife obesity will worsen future prevalence of dementia.
作者信息
Nepal Binod, Brown Laurie J, Anstey Kaarin J
机构信息
National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Centre for Research on Ageing, Health and Wellbeing, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
出版信息
PLoS One. 2014 Sep 3;9(9):e99305. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0099305. eCollection 2014.
BACKGROUND
Midlife body weight status has been found to affect late life dementia outcomes. A cohort projections model was developed to assess the impact of midlife body mass index (BMI) profile on dementia in older Australians.
METHODS
A baseline projection using age-sex specific dementia prevalence rates was constructed and the results of scenarios that took account of midlife BMI were compared with those from population ageing only.
RESULTS
This modelling predicts that if the rising trend in midlife obesity and declining trend in midlife normal weight in Australia are to be taken into account in projecting future numbers of Australians with dementia then the number of people aged 65 or more years with dementia, by 2050, would be 14% higher than that expected from demographic ageing only. If midlife obesity prevalence was decreased to 20% and normal weight increased to 40% over the period of 2015-2025, then dementia cases among persons aged 65-69 years would be lower by about 10% in 2050 compared with the "doing nothing to stop current trends in obesity" projection.
CONCLUSION
The rising tide of obesity in Australian adults will increase the dementia epidemic expected in future years.
背景
中年体重状况已被发现会影响晚年痴呆症的发病情况。开发了一个队列预测模型，以评估中年体重指数（BMI）概况对澳大利亚老年人痴呆症的影响。
方法
构建了一个使用特定年龄性别痴呆症患病率的基线预测模型，并将考虑中年BMI的情景结果与仅考虑人口老龄化的情景结果进行比较。
结果
该模型预测，如果在预测未来澳大利亚痴呆症患者数量时考虑到澳大利亚中年肥胖率上升和中年正常体重率下降的趋势，那么到2050年，65岁及以上痴呆症患者的数量将比仅因人口老龄化预期的数量高出14%。如果在2015年至2025年期间将中年肥胖患病率降至20%，正常体重率升至40%，那么与“不采取任何措施阻止当前肥胖趋势”的预测相比，2050年65至69岁人群中的痴呆症病例将减少约10%。
结论
澳大利亚成年人肥胖率的上升将加剧未来几年预计出现的痴呆症流行。
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