Dementia Collaborative Research Centre, School of Psychiatry, University of New South Wales, Faculty of Medicine, Sydney, N.S.W., Australia.
Dement Geriatr Cogn Disord. 2010;29(2):123-30. doi: 10.1159/000272436. Epub 2010 Feb 10.
A computer model was designed to test hypothetical scenarios regarding dementia prevalence in Australia (2001-2040).
The study implemented 3 scenarios: delaying dementia onset, slowing disease progression and, in a previously unpublished experiment, eradicating dementia types. Sensitivity analysis and parameter variation were the main methods of experimentation.
The model predicts that delaying dementia onset by 5 years will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 37%. An onset delay of 2 years, introduced in 2010, will reduce the 2040 prevalence by 16%. Slowing disease progression increases the 2040 prevalence by 4-7%. Total eradication of Alzheimer's disease (currently approximately 50% of all dementia cases) in 2020 will decrease the 2040 prevalence by 42%.
Computer modeling of future scenarios and interventions helps health and aged care planners understand the likely challenges society will face with the ageing of the world's population.
设计了一个计算机模型来测试澳大利亚（2001-2040 年）痴呆症患病率的假设情况。
本研究实施了 3 种情景：延迟痴呆发病、减缓疾病进展，以及在以前未发表的实验中消除痴呆症类型。敏感性分析和参数变化是实验的主要方法。
该模型预测，将痴呆症发病时间推迟 5 年将使 2040 年的患病率降低 37%。如果在 2010 年实施发病时间推迟 2 年的措施，那么到 2040 年，患病率将降低 16%。减缓疾病进展会使 2040 年的患病率增加 4-7%。如果在 2020 年根除阿尔茨海默病（目前约占所有痴呆病例的 50%），则 2040 年的患病率将降低 42%。
对未来情景和干预措施进行计算机建模有助于卫生和老年护理规划者了解随着世界人口老龄化，社会可能面临的挑战。
