Nepal Binod, Brown Laurie, Ranmuthugala Geetha
National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra, ACT, Australia.
Australas J Ageing. 2010 Sep;29(3):111-6. doi: 10.1111/j.1741-6612.2010.00392.x.
To model impact of modifiable risk behaviour on dementia prevalence among the Australian population aged 45 years and over.
A group-based computer model was constructed to estimate the impact of modifying risk behaviour on dementia prevalence.
Based on population ageing, the number of people aged 45 years and over living with dementia is expected to triple from 187 000 in 2006 to 650 000 by 2051. A drop in proportion ever smokers by 5% every 5 years would lower population with dementia by 2% in 2051. If obesity rate drops by 5%, dementia prevalence would be lower by 6%. A decline in physical inactivity rate by 5% would reduce dementia by 11%. Persistence of the growing trend in obesity and physical inactivity would result in a larger than expected dementia epidemic.
Improving the risk behaviours has potential to make a substantial reduction in the number of people with dementia.
模拟可改变的风险行为对澳大利亚45岁及以上人群痴呆症患病率的影响。
构建了一个基于群体的计算机模型，以估计改变风险行为对痴呆症患病率的影响。
基于人口老龄化，预计45岁及以上的痴呆症患者数量将增加两倍，从2006年的18.7万增至2051年的65万。每5年吸烟人口比例下降5%，到2051年痴呆症患者数量将减少2%。肥胖率下降5%，痴呆症患病率将降低6%。身体活动不足率下降5%，痴呆症患者数量将减少11%。肥胖和身体活动不足的增长趋势持续下去，将导致痴呆症流行规模超过预期。
改善风险行为有可能大幅减少痴呆症患者数量。
